2014 Stats: .323 BA, 17 R, 8 HR, 18 RBI, 3 SB (105 PA)
Justin Upton, April 2013: .298 BA, 22 R, 12 HR, 19 RBI, 3 SB, 14.3 BB percentage, 26.8 strikeout percentage
Justin Upton, April 2014: .326 BA, 17 R, 8 HR, 18 RBI, 3 SB, 10.5 BB percentage, 31.4 strikeout percentage
As you can see from the stats above, the 26-year-old has developed a habit of being pretty badass in the first month this season and last. Thing is, as great as Upton has been so far in 2014, his showing last year actually was better. And those last two numbers—the walk and strikeout rates—are the key figures to focus on as far as predicting his future performance.
There's just no way Upton can maintain this type of production, particularly in the batting average department, when he's whiffing more than 30 percent of the time. To wit, he's joined in that 30 percent K club this year by eight other players—including the likes of Chris Carter, Abraham Almonte and Khris Davis—and the only one of that bunch who is hitting north of .250 at the moment has the initials "J. U."
Is Upton capable of being an OF2 in most fantasy lineups? Sure is, especially when he's on one of his hot streaks. But if you can trade him in for a less volatile model while he's hitting this well—and with this high an average—you might want to consider it.