Early Pac 10 Football Predictions

(Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

Before I walk through my early predictions (I reserve the right to tweak these based on Fall camp injuries and eligibility outcomes) keep in mind the biases I have in evaluating college football teams:

1.) Historical performance most importantly the previous season. Filter that with injuries, turnover margin and schedule to project the coming year

2.) Returning talent. A combination of experience and talent based on previous AllP10 honors and recruiting rankings

3.) Big emphasis on the two lines. The biggest correlation to winning at the BCS level in college football is control of the LOS on both sides of the ball

4.) Schedule. Home field advantage especially in big games can be a difference maker

5.) Depth. Competition results in players pushing themselves and injuries are a part of the game

6.) Coaching. This is a constant and creates the tone and culture of a program. Bad coaches never win, average coaches only win on occasion, good coaches win more often than not and great coaches almost never have bad seasons.

This is an interesting year for the P10. USC isn't the obvious NC contender as they have been the past five years but they and Cal are clearly a notch above the rest of the conference. From third to ninth in the conference, it's going to be a dog fight. Injuries could be critical as teams like UCLA, Stanford and Oregon State are talented but thin.

With that long preamble, here's how I see the season going:

1.) Cal - Let's start on defense, where the Bears return nine starters. I count Mohammed as a starter as he was the teams leading tackler from the LB position last year and arguably their best all around linebacker.

The defense should be very salty in 2009 as a result of that returning experience. Especially as the strength of the group is up front with three studs in Alualu, Hill, and Jordan. The secondary will be among the nations best and the talent level everywhere is at an all time high in Berkeley.

Depth on the DL and LB are the only real concerns as the loss of Mohammed, Alualu or Jordan would be hard to overcome. Offensively, there is also reason for optimism although more guarded than on defense.

The Bears passing game can only get better as the OL gets needed depth and lots of returning experience and Kevin Riley returns all of his key receivers from last years and adds some needed young talent.

Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen are both home run threats who can catch and run equally well out of the backfield. Beyond the needed improvement in the passing game, replacing Cameron Morrah at TE will not be easy and the loss of blocking fullback Will Tafuo is a hit to the running game.

The Bears need to prove that they can win in November against good teams and win road games against inferior opponents. The schedule is rougher than it looks at first glance. Back to back to back games early at Minnesota, vs. USC, and at Oregon will not be easy nor will P10 tilts on the road against improved UCLA and Stanford squads.

2.) USC - Too much focus is being put on the inexperience at the quarterback position. Aaron Corp will be in his third season for the Trojans and will be taking snaps behind the nation's best offensive line, a good group of wideouts including a potential AA and arguably the deepest corps of running backs in Americ

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