Kentucky Derby Odds 2014: Updated Vegas Lines and Predictions After Post Draw

Chris RolingFeatured ColumnistApril 30, 2014

In a photo provided by Benoit Photo, California Chrome and jockey Victor Espinoza win the $250,000 California Cup Derby horse race, Saturday, Jan. 25, 2014, at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif. (AP Photo/Benoit Photo)
Uncredited/Associated Press

Hear that? It's casual and hardcore bettors racing to Las Vegas in a stampede to throw down hard-earned cash on the 2014 Kentucky Derby odds that are now set in stone after the post-position draw.

While there were odds available before the draw—a risky endeavor, no doubt—now it's easy to see which jockey-horse combos have favorable or iffy odds based on the skill of the duo and the historical performance of each position.

As CBS' Kenneth Moultry points out, the post draw decides the fate of many:

Here's a look at the draw results, updated Vegas odds and some predictions to take to the bank now that we know the official order.

 

Official Post Positions

2014 Kentucky Derby Post Positions
PostHorseJockeyTrainerOwner
1Vicar's In TroubleRosie NapravnikMike MakerKenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey
2Harry's HolidayCorey LanerieMike MakerSkychai Racing LLC, Sand Dollar Stable LLC, Terry Raymond and Jana Wagner
3Uncle SighIrad Ortiz Jr.Gary ContessaWounded Warrior Stables and Anthony C. Robertson
4DanzaJoe BravoTodd PletcherEclipse Thoroughbred Partners
5California ChromeVictor EspinozaArt ShermanSteve and Carolyn Coburn & Perry and Denise Martin
6SamraatJose OrtizRick Violette Jr.My Meadowview Farm
7We Miss ArtieJavier CastellanoTodd PletcherKenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey
8General a RodJoel RosarioMike MakerStarlight Racing and Skychai Racing LLC
9VinceremosJoe Rocco Jr.Todd PletcherWinStar Farm LLC and Twin Creeks Racing
10Wildcat RedLuis SaezJose GaroffaloHonors Stable Corp.
11HoppertunityMike SmithBob BaffertKarl Watson, Mike Pegram and Paul Weitman
12Dance With FateCorey NakataniPeter EurtonS. Alesia, Bran Jam Stable and Ciaglia Racing LLC
13ChituMartin GarciaBob BaffertTanma Corporation
14Medal CountRobby AlbaradoDale RomansSpendthrift Farm
15TapitureRicardo Santana Jr.Steve AsmussenWinchell Thoroughbreds
16Intense HolidayJohn VelazquezTodd PletcherStarlight Racing
17Commanding CurveShaun BridgmohanDallas StewartWest Point Thoroughbreds
18Candy BoyGary StevensJohn SadlerC R K Stable LLC
19Ride On CurlinCalvin BorelWilliam G. GowanDaniel J. Dougherty
20Wicked StrongRajiv MaraghJames A. JerkensCentennial Farms
KentuckyDerby.com

 

Updated Vegas Odds

2014 Kentucky Derby Odds
HorseOdds
California Chrome11-4
Wicked Strong7-1
Danza9-1
Hoppertunity10-1
Samraat16-1
Intense Holiday18-1
Dance With Fate20-1
Ride On Curlin20-1
Vicar's in Trouble20-1
Wildcat Red20-1
Candy Boy25-1
Tapiture28-1
Social Inclusion33-1
General a Rod33-1
Chitu33-1
We Miss Artie40-1
Medal Count40-1
Uncle Sigh40-1
Commanding Curve40-1
Vinceremos50-1
Harry's Holiday50-1
OddsShark.com

 

Predictions

California Chrome Blows Away the Field

Uncredited/Associated Press

Look, the draw was going to change little in regard to one thing this year—California Chrome remains the favorite.

In fact, take it to the bank that California Chrome rides to the finish line first.

Post position is one thing, but recent dominance and training quality are others. California Chrome comes into the race with major advantages in both. Not only has he won four races in a row, but trainer Art Sherman is also a legend with experience at the Derby that dates back as far as 1955.

There's a reason California Chrome's owners have turned down lucrative offers for their prized horse, as Yahoo! Sports' Pat Forde captures:

California Chrome is the sexy pick, and sometimes that's the only way to roll. As Forde points out, the fifth post is not a bad thing in any way: 

Those who want to play it safe and earn some easy cash are in good hands thanks to Sherman and the horse on the biggest roll of all.

 

Hoppertunity Comes in a Close Second

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Deja vu, no?

Hoppertunity came in second place recently at the Santa Anita Derby behind California Chrome and displayed great closing speed that makes the horse a favorite at Churchill Downs.

The only issue here is just how great Chrome has been and the fact he didn't race as a two-year-old and has little experience in a field with so many other contestants.

Now take the post position into consideration. Eleven is a sound way to start for a horse that needed to avoid the clutter and get off to a fast break. Sports Illustrated's Tim Layden put it best:

All things considered, closing speed will once again play a big factor for Hoppertunity, but it simply won't be enough to take down the top horse in the field.

 

Danza Shocks the Field and Stays in Contention to Finish Third

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Any horse named after Tony Danza has to do great on such a big stage, right?

There's a lot to like about Danza, including a recent win at the Arkansas Derby by quite a large margin. But there's also reason to exercise caution, such as the fact the horse spent seven months near the tail end of last year rehabbing a knee injury.

Danza has the look of a healthy, dominant horse. Now add in a very interesting draw position, as Forde details: 

Translation—Danza is a major beneficiary of the draw and is therefore an extremely strong bet for those who want a little more return on their bets.

 

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