Kentucky Derby Odds 2014: Picks and Predictions Based on Recent Betting Lines

Scott PolacekFeatured ColumnistApril 29, 2014

In a photo provided by Benoit Photo, California Chrome and jockey Victor Espinoza pose in the winner's circle after victory in the Santa Anita Derby horse race Saturday, April 5, 2014, at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif. (AP Photo/Benoit Photo)
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There will only be one horse to cross the finish line first at Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, but there will still be thousands of winners.

That is because people at Churchill Downs and all across the country will be placing their bets on the winning horses. Some will even hit it big in between mint juleps and trying on a handful of fancy hats.

With that in mind, here is a look at the latest odds to win the Kentucky Derby as of Monday, April 28, according to OddsShark:

2014 Kentucky Derby Odds
HorseOdds
California Chrome11-4
Wicked Strong7-1
Danza9-1
Hoppertunity10-1
Samraat16-1
Intense Holiday18-1
Dance With Fate20-1
Ride on Curlin20-1
Vicar's in Trouble20-1
Wildcat Red20-1
Candy Boy25-1
Tapiture28-1
Social Inclusion33-1
General a Rod33-1
Chitu33-1
We Miss Artie40-1
Medal Count40-1
Uncle Sigh40-1
Commanding Curve40-1
Vinceremos50-1
Pablo Del Monte50-1
Harry's Holiday50-1
OddsShark

Now that we know what the odds look like, let’s dig into a few predictions leading up to Saturday’s race.

 

The Favorite Will Take Home the Run for the Roses

Garry Jones

It may not be as entertaining or thrilling to pick the favorite, but there is a reason California Chrome is seen as the horse to beat at the Derby.

He has four straight Stakes victories and looked unbeatable at the Grade I Santa Anita Derby. He blew out the rest of the field and appeared primed to be the fourth-ever California-bred colt to win at Churchill Downs on the sport’s biggest stage.

Trainer Art Sherman certainly has confidence in his horse, via Larry Stumes of SFGate.com:

You always look for one special horse, and he's a special horse, no doubt about it. It's a tough road getting to the Kentucky Derby, not only winning it, just getting to run. I'm looking forward to it. I'd rather be in my shoes than anyone else's in the Derby. I think it's going to be great; win, lose or draw, we've made it this far. If it's in the cards that we win, it will be even greater.

Look for California Chrome, who hasn’t even been challenged lately, to jump out to an early lead during the Derby. 

After that, he will use his impressive speed to close out the race strong and take home the title as Kentucky Derby champ.

 

Samraat Is a Solid Value Pick

Adam Coglianese

Samraat isn’t a long shot at 16-1, but he is certainly a solid value pick when you consider the fact that California Chrome checks in at 11-4.

Samraat has won five times, including a victory over Uncle Sigh in the Grade III Withers and Gotham Stakes, so he knows how to compete against some of the best horses. Matt Sheehan of The State News believes that Samraat will stun the favorite:

If there is one thing to worry about when it comes to Samraat, it is the fact that he has never raced in a setting like this outside of New York. Sure, he has trained in Florida, but racing is a different story.

 

Be Wary of Wicked Strong

Charlie Riedel

Wicked Strong is nipping at California Chrome’s heels on the list of odds, but that is largely because of a single race.

Yes, Wicked Strong won the Wood Memorial, but he has been a completely different horse when taken outside of the state of New York. In four races in New York, Wicked Strong’s average finish is 1.75, but his average finish in two races outside of New York is an alarming 6.5.

Wicked Strong will have to find a way to compete outside of the Empire State if he wants to win the Kentucky Derby. Don’t say you weren’t warned.