The Myth Buster: Wenger the Wizard?

Arsene Wenger’s transfer history is often lauded, Vieira, Henry, Fabregas, Pires, Toure. The list of great, and often cheap, signings is endless isn’t it? Well maybe the record of Arsene Wenger is not quite as astounding as we are led to believe. I have made a deliberate mistake (one which has helped create the Wenger transfer record myth) in the very open line of this article, can anyone spot it? *Answer at the end of the article.

Of course Wenger has made some great signings, and has made a very healthy profit on a fair few players in his time, but with his reputation as a transfer visionary, we can expect a success rate of what 75%? 50%? I have judged every permanent signing that Arsene Wenger has made with Arsenal, and voted an unequivocal success or failure on each signing where I feel it is possible to do so. 

Where the picture is not yet clear, such as a current player who has been at the club for a time too short to judge, or a player who is simply too young to be judged, I have made clear also. I expect most will disagree with my decision on player or another, but overall, given the number of players involved, I think it gives a fair view of Wenger’s transfer record at Arsenal. Some of you may find the following are a little out of step with what the media, and many forgetful Arsenal fans, have led you to believe.

Arsene Wenger – Joined Arsenal 30/09/1996

1996-1997

Nicolas Anelka – Success; Matthew Upson – Failure (has had a good career, but not with Arsenal); Alex Manninger – Success (was a good back-up keeper); Manu Petit – Success; Gilles Grimandi – Success (not a great, but a reasonable back up in his time); Luis Boa Morte – Failure (same as Upson); Alberto Mendez – Failure; Marc Overmars – Success; Lee Canoville – Failure

Overall Stats – 9 players signed: 5 Successes 55% - 4 Failures 45% 

1997-1998

Christopher Wreh – Failure; David Grondin – Failure

Overall Stats – 11 players signed: 5 Successes 45% - 6 Failures 55%

1998-1999

Freddie Ljungberg – Success; Eric Chukwunyelu Obinna – Failure; William Huck – Failure; Jermaine Pennant – Failure; Nwankwo Kanu – Success; Kaba Diawara – Failure; Oleg Luzhny – Success

Overall Stats – 18 players signed: 8 Successes 44% - 10 Failures 56% 

1999-2000

Stefan Malz – Failure; Silvinho – Success; Davor Suker – Failure (great player, but not for Arsenal); Thierry Henry – Success; Niccolo Galli – Failure; Lauren – Success

Overall Stats – 24 players signed: 11 Successes 46% - 13 Failures 54% 

2000-2001

Robert Pires – Success; Sebastian Svard – Failure; Moritz Volz – Failure (good career at Fulham, shame about Arsenal); Guy Demel – Failure; Sylvain Wiltord – Success (not worth the £13m they paid at the time, but a good player); Igor Stepanovs – Failure; Tomas Danilevicius – Failure; Edu – Success (didn’t always convince, but did a steady job); Juan – Failure; Francis Jeffers – Failure (Yes, he really did pay 8m quid for him)

Overall Stats – 34 players signed: 14 Successes 41% - 20 Failures 59% 

2001-2002

Gio Van Bronckhorst – Success; Sol Campbell – Success; Richard Wright – Failure (£6m he cost, career has gone spectacularly backwards since); Efstathios Tavlaridis – Failure; Kolo Toure – Success

Overall Stats – 39 players signed: 17 Successes 43.6% – 22 Failures 56.4% 

2002-2003

Pascal Cygan – Failure; Gilberto Silva – Success; Rami Shaaban – Failure; Guillaume Warmuz – Failure

Overall Stats – 43 players signed: 18 Successes 42% – 25 Failures 58% 

2003-2004

Cesc Fabregas – Success; Phillipe Senderos – Failure (Difficult one to judge, has done some good things and some bad things, but at 2.5m when just 18, has to be considered a disappointment); Jens Lehmann – Success (Strained relations now, and the bloke is mental, but no doubting his quality on his day); Gael Clichy – Success; Jose Reyes – Failure (Quality player at times but didn’t settle, and his career has gone nowhere since as well); Robin Van Persie – Success; Arturo Lupoli – Failure (had ability, but not given a regular chance and moved on)

Overall Stats – 50 players signed: 22 Successes 44% – 28 Failures 56% 

2004-2005

Manuel Almunia – Success; Mathieu Flamini – Success; Emmanuel Eboue – Success (Picked up for just £1m, so a good deal, his perseverance with the Ivorian on the right side of midfield must frustrate Gooners though)

Overall stats – 53 players signed: 25 Successes 47% – 28 Failures 53%

2005-2006

Nicklas Bendtner – Success (A little early to judge, but picked up for a small fee and looks to have enough promise); Vito Mannone – Too early to judge the young keeper, at 20 though it looks like his days might be numbered; Armand Traore – Again, early to judge, but looks class at such a young age; Aleksander Hleb – Success; Vassisriki Diabi – Success; Emmanual Adebayor – Success; Theo Walcott – Too early to judge for a young player with such a big fee, no doubting his potential though; Mart Poom – Failure (not sure why he was signed as he made just 1 appearance in 14 months); Tomas Rosicky – Too early to judge the injury prone star, obvious quality though

Overall Stats – 62 players signed: 29 Successes 47% – 29 Failures 47% – 4 Not Judged 7% 

2006-2007

Joe O’Cearuill – Too young to judge; Fran Merida Perez – Too young to judge; Alexandre Song – Not enough appearances; William Gallas – Success (tricky one, has had his good and bad moments, but without him you feel the Arsenal defence would fold); Denilson – Too young to judge, looks class though; Lukasz Fabianski – Too young to judge; Nacer Barazite – Too young to judge; Eduardo Da Silva – Not enough games to judge, hopefully he makes a full recovery from terrible injury

Overall Stats – 70 players signed: 30 Successes 43% – 29 Failures 42% – 11 Not Judged 15%

2007-2008

Bakary Sagna – Success (An early judgement after 1 season, but Arsenal badly missed him in the closing months, and he made the PFA team of the year); Lassana Diarra – Failure (Quality player, but why sign him only to not use him, and then sell him at a time when you could do with a quality midfield player? Bizarre); Luke Freeman – Too young to judge

Overall Stats – 73 players signed: 31 Successes 42% – 30 Failures 41% – 12 Not Judged 17% 

So a success rate of 42% (rising to a maximum 59% if all the 'not judged' players turn out to be a success) over his whole Arsenal managerial career. Is that what people expected? Is that a good success rate? Of course all managers have made bad decisions in their time in the transfer market, it is simply impossible to have a success rate higher than probably 65%, but does a 42% success rate make you a transfer market genius? Do the superb, bargain signings of the likes of Eboue, Toure, Henry, Anelka etc, make up for the big money wasted on Jeffers, Wright, Suker and the like?

I am not providing answers here, merely posing the questions. What appears to be noticeable is that Wenger fares better in the latter years of his reign (which maybe helps the myth as old errors are forgotten), and appears to fare better when signing unknowns as opposed to household names. Maybe he is a better judge now than he was then, maybe he has just got luckier, who knows. It has been interesting reminiscing about some often forgotten names though.

*The deliberate mistake is at the beginning of the article.

Patrick Vieira joined Arsenal on the 14^thAugust 1996. Arsene Wenger was officially made manager of Arsenal on 1^st October 1996.