Baltimore Orioles: 29 percent
The Orioles again have a potent offense and should get a boost once Manny Machado returns to the field, but the starting pitching is still just not where it needs to be. The Ubaldo Jimenez signing has been a flop to this point, and it's going to be hard for them to make the playoffs without another front-line starter to complement Chris Tillman. The X-factors here are Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, as they still have the upside to make a serious impact in the second half.
Cleveland Indians: 25 percent
The surprise postseason team of 2013, the Indians have their work cut out for them if they hope to return to the playoffs this year. Their starting pitching has been a letdown, and their offense has not been good enough to pick up the slack. If Danny Salazar and Corey Kluber can get on track, and if Trevor Bauer can make an impact, they might have a chance—but that's a major "if" at this point.
Toronto Blue Jays: 25 percent
After a terribly disappointing 2013 season, the Blue Jays have gotten off to a better start this season, but there is still a question of whether or not they can legitimately contend with the pitching staff they have. The offense has the potential to be very good, but the rotation has struggled to find consistency behind Mark Buehrle. Until they prove they can get quality starts on a consistent basis, it's hard to call them contenders.
Chicago White Sox: 5 percent
The team's offense has been a huge surprise so far this season, as the White Sox are currently the highest-scoring team in the American League. However, their rotation is a question mark behind the lefty trio of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and John Danks, and their bullpen is a mess. Some time soon, their offense is going to come back to earth, at least somewhat, and they don't have the pitching to make up the difference.
Minnesota Twins: 5 percent
Like the White Sox, the Twins offense has been a pleasant surprise here in the early going, with the unheralded Chris Colabello leading the way. However, their starting rotation is still a train wreck, and a year after posting an MLB-worst 5.26 ERA, the additions of Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes have made little difference. They just don't have the arms to hope for anything better than a fourth-place finish in the AL Central.
Seattle Mariners: 5 percent
An offseason spending spree that saw them add Corey Hart, Logan Morrison and superstar Robinson Cano to their lineup has done little to improve the Mariners' offensive firepower so far this season. The pitching has been solid and should only get better once Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker get healthy, but this team still looks to be several notches below the trio of contenders in the AL West.
Houston Astros: 1 percent
The Astros added some solid veteran pieces in the offseason, bringing in center fielder Dexter Fowler, right-hander Scott Feldman and a trio of veteran relievers. The future remains bright in Houston, but the present is still a work in progress, and avoiding another 100-loss season could be tough.