All the speculation surrounding the Houston Texans first-round pick is due to the fact they get to choose the very first player. This may leave the field wide open to them, but it doesn't make a decision any easier. If the 2014 draft had a prospect who approached the acclaim of Andrew Luck, assigning odds to the Texans’ potential selection would be a slam dunk.
Because that level of confidence is lacking, a little historical perspective might help narrow down the probabilities. A quarterback has been taken No. 1 in 10 of the last 14 drafts, which would indicate either Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater or Johnny Manziel will be the first name called.
But the presence of a defender who may be a “once-in-a-generation talent” makes this draft class different from any other in recent memory.
Jadeveon Clowney offers some exceptional tangibles that are counterbalanced by a confusing set of intangibles. The question for NFL prognosticators of every type is whether Clowney’s speed and size are enough to compensate for his unproductive junior season and doubts about his commitment to the game.
An added complication is the possibility the Texans could trade out of the top spot. The key determinant is whether Clowney or one of the quarterbacks is so desirable to another team that sacrificing additional draft choices is worth the cost.
Odds will be assigned based on Houston both retaining the top overall pick and moving down to accumulate more players in the lower rounds.