Mayweather vs. Maidana Odds: Analyzing Lines Before Massive Bout

Rob Goldberg@TheRobGoldbergFeatured ColumnistMay 3, 2014

Sep 13, 2013; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Floyd Mayweather during his weight in at the MGM Grand Garden Arena for his super welterweight world championship fight against Canelo Alvarez (not pictured). Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Floyd Mayweather will once again put his undefeated record on the line against top challenger Marcos Rene Maidana. Unfortunately for bettors, the gambling options are limited.

It is not surprising that Mayweather is the heavy favorite heading into the bout. The 37-year-old fighter has won all 45 matches of his career and has had little trouble winning most of them. His advanced technique and in-ring IQ allow him to win on the scorecards even when he cannot secure a knockout.

Of course, Maidana will not go down easily as an experienced fighter who has beaten some talented competitors. The 30-year-old Argentine has built up a 35-3 record in his career with wins over Josesito Lopez, Erik Morales, and most recently, Adrien Broner.

For those looking to place a bet on this match, you have to consider more than just who is the better fighter. The odds for each side also indicate whether it is worth making a move.

Here is a look at the possibility of making each bet with odds for each fighter, courtesy of on Friday, May 2 at 2:15 p.m. ET.


The Case for Floyd Mayweather (-1000, 10-1)

Mark J. Terrill

When Mayweather steps into a ring, you know he has a good chance to win. If Oscar De La Hoya, Miguel Cotto, Shane Mosley and many more could not get the better of Money, it is hard to imagine anyone doing it.

People thought Saul "Canelo" Alvarez had a chance, which is why fans made that fight the highest-grossing match of all time with $150 million in total revenue. However, even that proved to be a one-sided battle with Mayweather coming away with a majority decision. 

This next opponent does not even have the hype of Alvarez, and most believe it will be yet another dominant win. Promoter Bob Arum did not hold back in his assessment of the bout:

While Maidana deserves more respect than this, the fact remains that he is physically overmatched in this battle. He has a strong punch, but he will be unable to land too many of them against the greatest defensive fighter in the sport.

In reality, we should see some vintage Mayweather. He will dance around the ring avoiding hits while waiting for the perfect moment to strike. He might not have the power to cause a knockout, but he will be in very little trouble throughout the match.

The problem is that oddsmakers are well aware of the advantage going into the fight. As a result, the line for Mayweather has ranged anywhere from -975 to -1600. With the line above (-1429), a gambler would have to place $1,000 to make $100 on a success bet. 

This might be too big of a bet for most people to make the profit worth the risk. Still, if there is anyone to bet on and feel comfortable, Mayweather is the man.


The Case for Marcos Rene Maidana (+600, 6-1 Odds)

Eric Gay

Although Maidana might not have the big name to excite casual boxing fans, he does have tons of skill. He easily defeated the previously unbeaten Adrien Broner, knocking him down twice in the bout and dominating in all phases to score the upset.

After the match, Broner explained that "he was the closest thing to Floyd Mayweather" and that "everybody felt like Floyd Mayweather took a loss" when he fell:

If Maidana can win that easily against a boxer of this caliber, there is no reason to think he cannot be competitive against the next step up. This win also got the attention of Mayweather himself, who explained, via

Marcos Maidana's last performance immediately brought him to my attention. He is an extremely skilled fighter who brings knockout danger to the ring. I think this is a great fight for me and he deserves the opportunity to see if he can do what 45 others have tried to do before him—beat me.

Mayweather is certainly correct about his opponent's knockout ability. Maidana has earned 31 knockouts in his 35 wins, including his three previous bouts before the win over Broner.

The talented fighter is aggressive, and he knows how to create a lot of damage with his hooks. He has taken down some high-profile competitors with these big hits, and Mayweather might not be ready for the challenge.

With a betting line of +800 here and even higher in some other locations, it might be worth the risk to gain the upside. A $100 bet would land you $600, giving you a nice bonus for having faith in the underdog should the unexpected happen.


Best Bet

Eric Gay

Based on the numbers, neither bet is all that wise. Mayweather is clearly the better boxer and should have little trouble with Maidana. However, anything can happen in this sport.

With Maidana's ability to catch opponents with big hits and force a knockout, you might not want to risk that much money on a wager for Mayweather. Additionally, it is always difficult to trust judges when someone like C.J. Ross can say that Mayweather-Alvarez was a draw.

In order to bet on Maidana, you have to consider the likelihood that your money is wasted anyway. At best, you can consider that the Argentine would win one out of six or seven hypothetical fights. 

For this reason, Maidana would be the smarter wager if you had to make a gamble. The slight possibility of a Mayweather loss is all you need to keep the odds in your favor without risking as much cash. 


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