NFL Fantasy Football Forecast 2009

Any time is a good time to consider which stud RB you want to take in the first round of your fantasy football draft.

In fact, if that wasn't the first thing you thought of at the conclusion of week 17 last season, you should feel downright ashamed.

How dare you call yourself a fantasy footballer!

With training camps fast approaching, both professional and fantasy GMs alike are getting a good idea of what their teams and players have in store for the 2009 season.

Let's take an unnecessarily early look at 2009's fantasy rankings:

Quarterbacks

1.) Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints - Becoming only the second person in history to throw for 5,000 yards in a season, Brees has cemented himself as the top fantasy quarterback.

2.) Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts - Though maybe not the best fantasy option any more, the best real quarterback in the NFL is certainly good enough to rank second on the list.

3.) Tom Brady, New England Patriots - Most athletes can't miss an entire year of work and still call themslves one of the best at what they do. Tom Brady isn't most athletes.

4.) Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers - The Chargers belong to LT as long as he's around. But there's no doubt that the winds of change are picking up in San Diego. This guy is bona fide.

5.) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - In his first full season of work Rodgers put up some pretty gaudy numbers. He will only get better as the new face of the franchise.

6.) Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles - There might not be a more underrated player in the NFL. The Eagles have been surrounding him with weapons and signed him to an extension. He'll have another good season.

7.) Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys - T.O.'s replacement, Roy Williams, has played all 16 games in a season only once in his career. That was four years ago. Romo's numbers will drop for a second consecutive season.

8.) Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals - On a good day, Palmer is a top three quarterback in reality and fantasy. Assuming he and Chad Ochocinco get back to form, Palmer could be a steal in later rounds.

9.) Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals - 2008 was an aberration. Anquan Boldin might not even be with the Cards this year and Warner isn't getting any younger.

10.) Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears - Cutler should be ranked higher, even if he is a Bear. But the lack of playmakers on the team tells me that the offense will be going through Matt Forte. Not good for his fantasy value.

Running Backs

1.) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings - No brakes on this train. "All Day" will defend his rushing title en route to beating—or at worst, matching—his totals from 2008.

2.) Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - No Bear caught as many passes as Forte in 2008 and only two players had more receiving yards. Not bad for a running back. Jay Cutler will help improve Forte's numbers too.

3.) Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars - Fred Taylor is no longer around to steal MJD's touches. He's the whole offense now, and is also a speical teams stud.

4.) Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons - Turner won't repeat his 2008 numbers but he's still a guaranteed thing. If the Falcons had less weapons around him and he caught more passes, Turner would be ranked higher.

5.) Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams - Even when the injury bug bites (which seems to be quite often) Jackson still manages to rush for 1,000 yards. A rebuilt offensive line and a pure fullback sets him up for success.

6.)LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers - There's no denying LT's fantasy value has dropped. But to average 1,945 total yards and 18 TDs per season over an eight year career is unfathomable.

7.) Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers - Like others ahead of him on the list, Gore is the only sure thing on Frisco's offense. He'll total about 1,400 total yards and eight TDs.

8.) Steve Slaton, Houston Texans - This stud helped yours truly win his league last year. The Texans have been cranking out low-key fantasy stars for years. Slaton is the next one.

9.)Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles - He should be in the top four but injuries follow Westbrook like a shadow. He had more surgery this offseason and will turn 30 in September. It's now only a matter of when....

10.) DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers - Readers will say he should be higher on the list. But he's still splitting carries and has only rushed for 1,000 yards once in his career. If he can repeat, then I'll believe.

11.) Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins - People forget he's still one of the best in the game. Portis was hot to start 2008, but disappeared on the back nine. If it was the other way around, he would have been ranked higher.

12.) Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys - Without T.O., the Cowboys will lean more on the running game. That means Tashard Choice and Felix Jones too. Barber's touches will fall but he will still get the goalline carries.

13.) Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans - Like D. Williams, one good season isn't enough for me to jump on the bandwagon. Plus he shares the ball with the league-leader in rushing TDs.

14.) Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs - Under normal circumstances, LJ should be in the top four or five. But the Chiefs have no O-line and Johnson probably couldn't care less if he were a redcoat. So disappointing.

15.) Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills - He would be higher if he weren't suspended for two games this season. Although, Fred Jackson was already pushing him for playing time last year.

16.) Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants - Jacobs is a monster, but only at the goalline, and only 12-13 games a year. A crowded backfield will steal his touches, but could keep him healthier.

17.) Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions - Smith has tons of potential, but a new coach, questions at QB, and that horrible new logo won't help his fantasy stock.

18.) Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins - Aside from a four touchdown explosion in week 3 against the Patriots, Brown's 2008 season was lackluster. Ricky Williams is still hanging around stealing carries too.

19.) Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers - There's still a lot of uncertainty when it comes to Grant. He has the potential, but couldn't find the end zone enough last year. The Packers are a passing team anyway.

20.) Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints - Bush should get back to rookie form with Pierre Thomas doing most of the dirty work. He can still catch and is the most dangerous return man in the game.

Wide Receivers

1.) Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals - So much of the WR position's success depends on the quarterback. And since Kurt Warner was healthy last year and Tom Brady wasn't, Fitz is No.1.

2.) Andre Johnson, Houston Texans - Coming off his best year as a pro, Johnson will repeat as long as he can avoid being injured.

3.) Randy Moss, New England Patriots - 2007 was no fluke. With a healthy Tom Brady, Moss could easily finish as the top fantasy wideout in 2009.

4.) Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions - I can already see Johnson taking the No. 1 spot on my rankings next year. He's poised for an even better season in 2009.

5.) Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts - Over the past five years, there hasn't been a more consistent receiver in the NFL. As long as Manning is chucking the rock, Wayne is never a bad fantasy pick.

6.) Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers - If Smith didn't miss the first two games of last year, he could have set a career best for receiving yards. Smith is the first and only option for Delhomme. Don't let him fall too far in your league.

7.) Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints - He was hurt most of last year, but he won't miss a step. Brees and the rest of the offense is too good for Colston to fall off. Plus he's unstoppable in the red zone.

8.) Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills - Nothing has shown me that T.O. is close to falling off. It's just that other receivers have gotten better. Even in Buffalo, Owens will score at least 10 touchdowns.

9.) Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers - Jennings will be someone you can wait on drafting, but you shouldn't. Jennings and Rodgers have only begun to build up a rapport that will last a long time.

10.) Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons - Without Matt Ryan, White would still be just another underachiever. But he showed up big time last year and like Jennings/ Rodgers, White's chemistry with Ryan can only strengthen.

11.) Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals - Normally, Boldin would be ranked much higher. But until I know exactly where he will end up this year, his fantasy status is in limbo.

12.) Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos - Like Boldin, Marshall should be ranked much, much higher. But the Broncos got worse at QB and now Marshall wants a trade.

13.) T.J. Houshmandzadeh - Housh can ball with the best of them, but I don't know if a change of scenery will be good or bad for him. In Seattle, he's closer to home, but he leaves the better QB in Cincinnati.

14.) Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys - If a lesser QB was throwing him the ball, Williams might not even make my top 20. His entire career has been a disappointment and he might have only one chance to impress Jerry Jones.

15.) Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals - His numbers will jump back up with a healthy Carson Palmer back under center. He deserves to be ranked higher, but last year left a bad taste in my mouth.

16.) Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns - Yet another receiver that should be ranked higher. But the circumstances surrounding Edwards and his team (new coach, questions at QB) don't warrant that just yet.

17.) Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs - unless LJ gets off the snide, Bowe is the best offensive weapon the Chiefs have. Matt Cassel will turn him into a star.

18.) Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers - Jackson took great strides last year to become the go-to receiver for Philip Rivers. Playing opposite Chris Chambers for a full season seemed to do him well.

19.) Wes Welker, New England Patriots - I've tried to before, but I just can't ignore that Welker IS worth picking up. He caught as many passes with Cassel as with Brady, but Brady will get him in the end zone more.

20.) Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints - I thought about putting DeSean Jackson here, but Moore is on a better offense and has more experience. Brady has Welker, Brees has Moore.

Tight Ends

1.) Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys - Witten is the first option for Tony Romo, even when T.O. was on the team. That won't change in 2009.

2.) Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers - The top spot was a toss-up between Gates and Witten, but there are too many other options for Rivers. Gates will still score nine TDs.

3.) Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons - If Gonzalez can go for 1,000 & 10 on the Chiefs, imagine what he'll do in Atlanta. He could easily finish as the best TE.....again.

4.) Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts - Clark is an unassuming TE. But a set of soft hands and Peyton Manning make him worth a spot on your team.

5.) Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins - Cooley set career highs in 2008 for catches and receiving yards. But he also posted a career-low one TD catch.

6.) Kellen Winslow, Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Winslow a top-three TE but playing for the Bucs drastically drops his fantasy value.

7.) Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints - Another TE that should be higher on the list. Drew Brees can only do so much, Shockey has to at least meet him half way.

8.) Owen Daniels, Houston Texans - Matt Shaub is the only reason Daniels is on this list, and that's not saying a lot. But the numbers don't lie, Daniels is solid.

9.) Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears - Olsen had a respectable rookie campaign and the addition of Jay Cutler will only make him better.

10.) John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks - It was either Carlson or Dustin Keller...I flipped a coin.

QB Sleepers

1.) Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills - Edwards is ready to have a breakout season. Many thought he was experiencing that last year after the Bills jumped out to a 4-0 start. But eventually the wheels fell off and Edwards lost time due to injury. In 2009, new WR Terrell Owens will haul in at least ten scores while the emergence of Fred Jackson gives the offense a two-pronged rushing attack that will free Edwards up to make plays.

2.) Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals - Most Pro Bowlers can't be categorized as sleepers. But Palmer missed most of last season and the Bengals offense has gotten arguably worse over the offseason with the departure of T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Palmer is under the radar but he's definitely good enough to toss 3 TDs a game no matter who's catching them.

3.) Matt Schaub, Houston Texans - There might not be a single player in the NFL that looks less like a QB than Matt Schaub.....well, maybe Kyle Orton. But that doesn't change the fact that Schaub and the Texans know how to put points on the board. Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels, and Steve Slaton provide Schaub with a great nucleus of talent with which he has good chemistry.

RB Sleepers

1.) Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks - With Maurice Morris no longer around to steal his touches, Jones is now the man in the Seattle backfield. The Seahawks lost Mike Holmgren and Matt Hasselbeck is coming off a serious back injury. Jones could be asked to carry the load early and often.

2.) Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills - He was already cutting into Marshawn Lynch's workload last year, and Lynch's suspension this year will give Jackson another chance to showcase himself to the coaches. He'll take advantage of that and will continue to steal touches from Lynch throughout the season.

3.) Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals - I debated whether or not I should put Kevin Smith here. They both play on bad teams, but Smith's potential success is easier to forecast. Benson wasn't horrible in limited time in Cincinnati, and the Bengals are going to have to run the ball with someone. Benson's that guy.

WR Sleepers

1.) Laveranues Coles, Cincinnati Bengals - His success hinges upon the health of Carson Palmer. If Palmer goes down, so will Coles (and the rest of the Bengals). But the potnetial is there for great numbers as long as Cincinnati can stay competitive.

2.) Devin Hester, Chicago Bears - Hester went from return man to wide receiver after a lack of playmakers at that position failed to present themselves. The more he plays WR, the better he will get. The addition of Jay Cutler is what gets him on this list.

3.) Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers - I normally try to ignore rookies come fantasy season, but Crabtree makes it hard. He's Frisco's best option at wideout and could easily turn in a rookie performance a la Calvin Johnson. A weak division helps his chances too.

TE Sleepers

1.) Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles - L.J. Smith left for Baltimore, leaving Celek as the No. 1 TE on the team. He had his moments in 2008 and he'll have a lot more in 2009, especially in the red zone.

2.) Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints - Everyone knows that Shockey has the potnetial to be one of the best TEs in the game. But his stock has never been lower, which is why he's a good sleeper candidate. Plus Sean Payton loves to throw the ball, and Shockey will get his touches in a bounce back year.

QB Busts

1.) Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals - Warner needs good receivers around him to be successful. If Boldin doesn't come back in 2009, Warner will fall off drastically. If you draft him, make sure you have a backup plan and don't expect the same from last year.

2.) Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs - Cassel benefited by playing with the best head coach and WR in the game when he was with the Patriots. Kansas City is a far cry from the Patriots and Cassel will be rudely awakened when he goes under center for them.

3.) Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears - Cutler was taken from his comfort zone in Denver and thrown onto a team who's best receiving option is a running back. He'll find a way to make it work, but not like he did in Denver.

RB Busts

1.) Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans - Another classic case of the "sucker puncher," Johnson won't surprise anyone this year. He shares carries with the league-leader in rushing TDs in 2008 and the Titans' defense has gotten worse.

2.) Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants - Injury concerns and another crowded backfield decrease Jacobs' chances for success. He'll find the end zone, but not the yards.

3.) Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills - Lynch has yet to complete a full season as a pro and that trend will continue following his two-game suspension at the start of this season. Besides, Fred Jackson was already cutting into his workload last year.

WR Busts

1.) Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos - Marshall might not be on this list depending on what happens with him the rest of the offseason. He's stuck with Kyle Orton for now but wants a trade. Too much uncertainty.

2.) Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys - Williams is a perennial bust, so of course he's going to be on the list. I'm not sure why people put so much stock in him to begin with. Romo won't save this oft-injured underachiever from himself.

3.) Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers - Remember when Deion Branch was a Super Bowl MVP? Don't let Holmes fool you into picking him. He's never caught 60 passes and he never will as long as he's in Pittsburgh. Besides, Hines Ward is ALWAYS the better option, check the stats.

4.) Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I added a fourth to this list becuase I'm so adament about this particular player. Five teams in seven years, and last year was Bryant's best season as a pro. He got lucky last season, and the Bucs have gotten worse as an entire team. He will not repeat.

TE Busts

1.) Kellen Winslow Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Browns are bad, but not as bad as the Bucs. Winslow's numbers will drop playing under a rookie head coach and QB

2.) Tony Scheffler, Denver Broncos - Scheffler only made a name for himself thanks to Jay Cutler. It's too bad too becuase Scheffler was on the verge of breaking out. Kyle Orton will drop him back down below average.