Assigning Odds to Every Potential New York Jets 1st-Round Pick
While free agency may not have went exactly as planned for John Idzik's New York Jets, he has a chance to make everything right with one of the deepest drafts in recent memory.
Not only are the Jets armed with 12 picks—they are sitting in an ideal position in the first round in which they will get a chance at to draft a highly talented player at a position of need. The only question is who will be available based the actions of the teams slotted to selected before them.
Here are the odds of the potential first-round prospects for the Jets.
Marqise Lee, WR, USC
Odds: 20 percent
The Jets have as good a chance as making Lee their first selection as any other receiver in the draft. Because of a steep dip in production last season and concerns surrounding his knee, teams picking in the first half of the first round will choose Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans before looking at players of Lee's caliber.
Lee makes a ton of sense for the Jets because he is the perfect complement to Eric Decker, excelling at turning small completions into long gains. Despite those previously mentioned issues, Lee has a chance to emerge as one of the steals of the draft if he can return to his 2012 form.
The Jets have expressed great interest in Lee, making an appearance at USC's pro day to get a good look at Lee both on and off the field, per the New York Daily News' Manish Mehta.
Despite being somewhat damaged goods relative to his stellar 2012 season, Lee's skill set would allow him to seamlessly fit into the Jets' offense from day one.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, LSU
Odds: 20 percent
Odell Beckham Jr. is on the same level as Marqise Lee as a prospect, but Lee's superior fit in the Jets offense gives him a better chance to wind up with the Jets than Beckham.
This is not to say that the Jets would not welcome a player like Beckham to their team. With outstanding body control, hands and underrated 4.43 speed, Beckham brings a well-rounded game to the table that would be a massive upgrade over anyone currently on the Jets roster.
His polished route running makes him a plug-and-play prospect who will make an immediate impact.
While his height (5'11") is underwhelming and puts a ceiling on his potential as a true No. 1 receiver, he would be an excellent complement to Eric Decker.
Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
Odds: 10 percent
If the Jets are looking into taking a tight end in the first round, it is starting to look like Amaro would be the best available prospect that fits the Jets' massive need at the position.
While he was hardly used as a blocker at Texas Tech, Amaro is a matchup nightmare as a stereotypical "joker" tight end. In combination with Jeff Cumberland, the Jets would have a dynamic receiving duo at the tight end position that they have not enjoyed in quite some time.
The Jets have shown considerable interest in Amaro, making an appearance at his pro day:
As much as the Jets would welcome Amaro to their lineup, he is relatively low on their priority list with so many other talented players at more needy positions, such as wide receiver. Jeff Cumberland is hardly a world-beater, but his presence allows the Jets to at least focus on other positions without having to "reach" for help at tight end.
It would take an unexpected run on wide receivers and cornerbacks to leave the Jets with Amaro as the most logical decision.
Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State
Odds: 15 percent
The odds that the Jets use their top pick on a cornerback is at least as high as any other position. Of all of the first-round prospects, Michigan State's Darqueze Dennard would be the ideal fit for Rex Ryan's defense.
A smooth athlete who excels in press-man coverage, Dennard would be able to flourish in Ryan's aggressive defense from day one. While his speed is less than ideal (4.51 40-yard dash), his fluidity and strength make up for his average recovery speed.
The problem for the Jets is that as aggressive, press-man coverage becomes more and more popular throughout the NFL, the demand for Dennard will simultaneously increase. It seems unlikely that the most polished man-to-man corner in the draft would last until the second half of the first round.
If he does, the Jets would instantly solve their dilemma at cornerback and have a young pair of corners they could build around for years.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
Odds: 15 percent
While he may lack the polish of Marqise Lee or Odell Beckham Jr., Brandin Cooks possesses a rare element that neither of the other first-round candidates can replicate: speed.
With a blazing 4.33 40-yard dash, Cooks would give the Jets a much-needed injection of speed to their otherwise-slow receiving corps. This would open up the field for Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley, who can take care of the underneath stuff on their own.
The downside to Cooks is that he is a bit underdeveloped as a route-runner and will take some time to refine his game—not an ideal situation for a Jets team looking for immediate starters.
Still, Cooks' unmatched speed will force opponents to respect his game-breaking ability, even if he is unproven. With some time, Cooks may wind up as one of the best downfield playmakers to come out of this year's draft.
Unfortunately for the Jets, as Cooks' stock continues to rise, so will the competition for him on draft day. Once seen as somewhat of a reach in the middle of the first round, there is a realistic chance that Cooks will not even be available for when the Jets pick 18th overall.
Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
Odds: 5 percent
While his skill set may not be quite the ideal fit for the Jets as Darqueze Dennard, Fuller would be an excellent fallback option in the first round if the Jets are hell-bent on walking away with a cornerback on Thursday night.
Fuller is a tremendously instinctual player, able to read routes and diagnose plays before they happen. He specializes in off-man coverage and is more than willing to stick his nose in the run game.
However, Fuller does leave a bit to be desired in terms of fluidity and agility, which suggests that he would struggle in press-man coverage at times. He can be exposed when forced to turn and run, and his average speed (4.49) could be exploited.
Still, Fuller is a talented, high-character player that would be an instant upgrade over Dimitri Patterson at the No. 2 cornerback spot.
Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
Odds: 5 percent
Blessed with a ton of athletic ability and upside that compares only to Vernon Davis as a prospect, Eric Ebron is the Jets' pipe dream. Barring a dramatic, unforeseen slide down the first round, the only way the Jets are getting their hands on Ebron is by trading up.
Ebron's rare combination of size and speed make him a matchup nightmare with upside to make him one of the most dominant players in the league at his position. His inconsistent hands and unpolished route running are the only obstacles in his path.
While the Jets may have a dozen picks at their disposal (although four of them are compensatory picks and cannot be traded), the only thing more unlikely than the Jets sacrificing picks in a deep draft for one player is Ebron falling to them at No. 18.
Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State
Odds: 10 percent
Prior to the 2013 season, Bradley Roby had a chance to enter this draft as the undisputed top cornerback. However, a disappointing junior season in which he was exposed by some of the top receivers in the country put his stock in free fall.
Still, Roby's diverse skill set is enough to make teams overlook his "down" year in 2013. He has good size for the position (5'11") and tested well at the combine, clocking a 4.39 40-yard dash.
Roby is not afraid to be physical against the run and is excellent when changing direction—the perfect formula for a slot cornerback, where he would be able to contribute immediately. However, he was beaten easily in 50-50 situations and was prone to lapses in concentration, raising questions about his football IQ.
Despite being a bit of a project, the Jets appear to be very interested in Roby having brought him in for a pre-draft visit, according to a tweet by DraftInsider.net's Tony Pauline.
Initially, Roby can contribute in nickel and dime packages before taking over responsibilities on the outside. While he was not often used in press-man coverage, his great lateral movement and speed give him a chance to excel in this area if given proper coaching.
All combine results courtesy of NFL.com.
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