UFC on Fox 11: Miesha Tate vs. Liz Carmouche Full Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC on Fox 11 will feature an intriguing women's bantamweight tilt in the co-main event. No. 3-ranked Miesha Tate will try to pick up her first win since the summer of 2012 against No. 7-ranked Liz Carmouche.
This bout is not only interesting due to the rank of the fighters, but because both were handled easily by champion Ronda Rousey in 2013. Their road back to title contention starts on Saturday in Orlando, Fla.
Tate is ranked No. 3 in the division, but her road to another title fight will be a long one. She has lost two in a row and has been dominated by Rousey in each of their two bouts. There is little interest in seeing a third fight between the two. However, if she gets back to her winning ways, it will be hard to deny her another chance.
Carmouche was looking for key victory in her last outing, but Alexis Davis controlled the fight with her leg kicks. It was a setback for the former Marine.
These are, without question, two of the top bantamweights in the world. This will be a clash of styles, and whomever comes out on top will be back in the thick of things in the division.
Here is your head-to-toe breakdown for the UFC on Fox 11 co-main event.
Neither Tate nor Carmouche are going to be winning any technique awards for their striking, but they are continually developing that portion of their arsenal.
Carmouche is more of a power striker, and Tate has a few more wrinkles to her game. That is why Tate has the edge in this matchup.
Davis showed that Carmouche still has a lot of work to do in the stand-up department. She picked her apart with leg kicks. It altered the fight, and there was nothing Carmouche could do the rest of the way. Tate doesn't have the same success with her kicks, but she should be able to win the exchanges.
Carmouche is not as diversified in her striking, nor does she have the height or reach advantage to be successful against Tate.
If the fight stays standing, then it should be a 30-27 route for Tate.
If I were going strictly off of technique, Tate would have the edge here. However, in this particular matchup, I will also look at the pure strength that Carmouche brings into the cage.
Carmouche is one of the most powerful in the division. Perhaps second only to Sara McMann.
Where she lacks in technique she can make up for in ragdolling her counterparts. I believe if she locks her hands on Tate, then she can slam her down to the canvas. As she continues to work on her wrestling that strength will become a greater asset.
I'll give a slight edge to Carmouche due to her power. I expect her to be able to thwart Tate's grappling with her strength, and potentially throw her around too.
Tate has shown the ability to both submit and survive top-level competition.
She did well, for the most part, on the floor against Rousey. That speaks for itself. While she did eventually get caught by the armbar in both of those fights, she survived on the ground on numerous occasions using her defense.
Offensively, she has more tools. She has submitted Julie Kedzie and Marloes Coenen in recent memory. She can catch Carmouche off her back, or she can use top position to secure a submission.
Carmouche has a basic submission game, but her brute strength makes it very effective. That is what Tate has to be mindful of in this fight.
Tate simply has the better submissions between the two.
Carmouche's X-Factor: Make It Ugly
The former title challenger has to make this fight ugly. She will not win a finesse battle against Tate.
She will have to close the distance in the striking exchanges, and she will need to pressure Tate throughout the fight. She cannot let the former champion dictate the pace of the action.
She has shown holes in both her striking and ground game, and Tate can capitalize on those with relative ease. Carmouche has to rough Tate up. She is fully capable of this, but it will not be as easy as stated.
Tate's X-Factor: Experience
Carmouche has plenty of fight experience, but she has never beaten a top-level fighter. Tate has.
That type of experience is invaluable. Tate knows how to compete against the elite. She is a former champion after all.
Carmouche has failed time and again against the upper echelon of the division, and this is yet another opportunity to prove she belongs in that grouping. Tate has been there, proved she is one of the best and continues to compete well against the elite.
Tate's experience and, more importantly, success against quality competition is a big X-factor in this fight.
I have wavered in picking this fight. It could go any way, and no outcome would surprise me.
If Carmouche looked good against Davis, I may have picked her in this fight. I would have seen it as a changing of the guard with Tate, a longtime veteran, losing her third in a row. But she didn't.
Carmouche was easily defeated by a crafty veteran, and Tate is most certainly that.
The former Strikeforce champion has the better striking and submission arsenal. She is also a qualified wrestler. It is entirely possible that she outright dominates Carmouche on Saturday. I expect it to be a tough battle, but that is a distinct possibility.
I don't envision Carmouche being stopped by Tate. It will be 15 minutes of hard work, but the former champion will have her hand raised.
Prediction: Miesha Tate defeats Liz Carmouche by unanimous decision