On one hand, it’s not a surprise to see Tiger Woods as a favorite on the US Open odds. After all, Woods would be the favorite if he showed up at your local watering hole to play Golden Tee. He’s a favorite at every event all the time. But is he worth the low price tag?
It’s kind of a surprise to the golf betting crowd to see Woods posted as such a heavy favorite. Woods is a +140 favorite and there is no one even close to him on the odds.
Obviously, Woods has a good pedigree not only at the US Open but also at the Bethpage State Park, where the 2009 US Open will take place.
Woods already has three US Open victories on his resume including a win at Bethpage Black all the way back in 2002. He also has a pretty good history at the US Open even when he doesn’t win.
Woods won last year on one leg, which may have been his most memorable win at the US Open, and previously finished in the top 20 or better in 11 of the last 12 US Opens. It’s pretty clear that he’ll be near or among the leaders when Sunday approaches.
But we all know that betting management is important and one has to question when +140 is good enough value to take Woods.
After Woods, the next closest favorite is Phil Mickelson, who isn’t even within 10-to-1. Beyond Mickelson, who is 12-to-1, there are only two other golfers in the entire field who are within 25-to-1 and that would be Geoff Ogilvy (18-to-1) and Jim Furyk (18-to-1).
Woods has three US Open victories in the last 14 years and the +140 is simply a poor correlation of value to the amount of times that he wins. Going by his history, he wins once every four to five years but the odds are paying out as if he wins once every two to three years.
Since his odds are astronomically low, it means that there is plenty of value with a number of other golfers in this field. Take a shot with someone else as Woods just isn’t offering a big enough payday.