Masters Favorites 2014: Projecting Daily Score Totals for Golf's Top Stars

Scott Polacek@@ScottPolacekFeatured ColumnistApril 9, 2014

Adam Scott, of Australia, takes a club from his caddie Steve Williams on the seventh fairway during a practice round for the Masters golf tournament Tuesday, April 8, 2014, in Augusta, Ga. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Matt Slocum

The 2014 Masters means one thing when it comes to Las Vegas—there figures to be plenty more intrigue surrounding golf betting than usual.

Jack Randall of Odds Shark breaks it down:

The Masters is the biggest golf betting event of the year at the sportsbooks, and along with the odds to win the Masters this week at Augusta National the sportsbooks are also dishing out tons of interesting prop wagers for the tournament.

However, for our purposes we are interested in the odds to actually win the Masters tournament. Here is what they look like as of Tuesday, April 8:

Odds to win the 2014 Masters
Adam Scott9-1
Rory McIlroy9-1
Phil Mickelson12-1
Jason Day14-1
Matt Kuchar20-1
Dustin Johnson22-1
Sergio Garcia22-1
Bubba Watson25-1
Henrik Stenson25-1
Justin Rose28-1

Now that we know who the favorites are, let’s dig into some projected daily score totals for the top stars in the field.


Adam Scott

Matt Slocum

Adam Scott and Rory McIlroy are the favorites to capture the green jacket, but it was Scott who won the title in the 2013 Masters.

He isn’t ready to relinquish his crown, via Michael Whitmer of The Boston Globe: “I’ve really got this thing in my head that I’m quite determined to not leave it here. I am very determined to take it with me again next Sunday.”

Only Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods have won repeat championships at Augusta, so Scott would join golf royalty if he wins on Sunday. He has finished eighth or better in seven of his past 12 majors and has only played in five PGA Tour events in the 2014 season as a method of keeping fresh before Augusta.

He finished 12th or better in four of those five events, including a third-place mark at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

Thanks to his fresh legs and recent momentum, Scott will post consistently excellent marks in all four rounds.

Adam Scott Projected Masters Scores
Projections are my own


Rory McIlroy

Until McIlroy wins a green jacket, fans will always associate his Masters legacy with his 2011 collapse.

He shot an 80 in the final round and not only lost the lead, but fell out of the top 10 entirely. It was a difficult round to watch for fans of the young golfer, although at least he never has to worry about being lumped in the “never won a major” category that includes so many others.

Despite zero top-10 finishes at Augusta, McIlroy is still the co-favorite at the Masters, thanks partly to his immense popularity among golf supporters.

Matt Slocum

Predicting McIlroy’s scores is an act of balancing his struggles at Augusta (by his impressive standards) with the recent momentum he has acquired with three top-10 finishes already this season. Look for McIlroy to pick up where he left off at the Shell Houston Open, where he had a seventh-place finish, with a hot start at Augusta. 

He won’t maintain that pace for four rounds, but a first top-10 finish at Augusta is not out of the question.

Rory McIlroy Projected Scores
Projections are my own


Phil Mickelson 

Few players in the history of the Masters have been as dominant as Phil Mickelson. KPMG Mickelson broke it down in visual format:

As can be seen, pick against the lefty at Augusta at your own risk.

Yes, he finished in a disappointing 54th place in the 2013 Masters, but his track record speaks for itself.

The problem for the three-time champion is his health. He withdrew from the Farmers Insurance Open and the Valero Texas Open with lingering injury concerns, but he played all four rounds at the Shell Houston Open and has practiced this week leading up to the Masters.

He will flash his Augusta dominance early in the tournament, but the fact that he is not 100 percent healthy will cost him a chance at the green jacket over the long haul.

Phil Mickelson Projected Scores
Projections are my own

Mickelson will still finish in the top 20 and impress along the way, but someone else will be crowned the Masters champion on Sunday.