Postseason Matchup Wish List for the OKC Thunder

Shehan Peiris@@shehan_peiris_Correspondent IIIApril 1, 2014

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - NOVEMBER 03:  Kevin Durant #35, Serge Ibaka #9, Russell Westbrook #0 and Thabo Sefolosha #25 of the Oklahoma City Thunder huddle up against the Phoenix Suns on November 03, 2013 at the Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2013 NBAE (Photo by Layne Murdoch Jr./NBAE via Getty Images)
Layne Murdoch Jr./Getty Images

The Oklahoma City Thunder were robbed by Russell Westbrook’s injury last season, so you know they’re chomping at the bit with championship-tinted glasses focused on the upcoming 2014 NBA playoffs. The problem? Navigating the treacherous waters of the very deep and talented Western Conference will be no easy feat.

There is still plenty of time for movement in the standings, but here’s a ranking of the most favorable first-round matchups awaiting the Thunder. There are nine teams realistically in the hunt for a playoff spot, and the Thunder are going to secure a top-three seed in all likelihood.

Playoff Picture in the West
SeedTeamRecordGames Back
1San Antonio Spurs58-16-
2Oklahoma City Thunder54-193.5
3Los Angeles Clippers53-225.5
4Houston Rockets49-238
5Portland Trailblazers48-2710.5
6Golden State Warriors45-2812.5
7Phoenix Suns44-3014
8Dallas Mavericks44-3014
9Memphis Grizzlies43-3014.5

As a result, the most probable matchups are the last four teams on that table—and that’s whom we’re going to look at right now. The hypothetical series are ranked by the risk of an upset (from most favorable matchup to least favorable), although it’s important to keep in mind that—obviously—OKC is the favorite in all of these series.


4. Phoenix Suns (Most Favorable)

DENVER, CO - December 20:  Eric Bledsoe #2 and Goran Dragic #1 of the Phoenix Suns smile and walk off the court against the Denver Nuggets on December 20, 2013 at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees t
Bart Young/Getty Images

The Phoenix Suns have been one of the surprises of the year and one of the most exciting teams in the NBA when fully healthy—but this would be the easiest series for the Thunder by far.

For starters, the Suns don’t have a lot of depth or talent on the wings. Both P.J. Tucker and Gerald Green have been fantastic this year—with Green emerging as a legitimate candidate for the Most Improved Player award—but they don’t have the size to deal with Kevin Durant, who would eviscerate them in a series.

Additionally, this Phoenix team has no experience on a stage like the NBA playoffs, which is a big disadvantage against a grizzled and battle-tested group like the Thunder.

Season Series: Phoenix Suns
DateOklahoma City ThunderPhoenix Suns
Nov. 310396
Mar. 6122128
Apr. 6--

The duo of Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic is relentless, but Phoenix doesn’t have the depth or talent to take down OKC in the playoffs.


3. Memphis Grizzlies

MEMPHIS, TN - JANUARY 14: Marc Gasol #33 and Zach Randolph #50 of the Memphis Grizzlies talk during a game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on January 14, 2014 at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that
Joe Murphy/Getty Images

The Memphis Grizzlies are only out of the playoff picture because Marc Gasol missed 23 games due to injury. Since Gasol has rejoined the lineup, the Grizzlies are 27-11 (.715), meaning that they are still a tough out even without head coach Lionel Hollins.

Size is still their forte, and they are the fourth-best team in points in the paint (47.4) in the league according to

But size isn’t a huge problem for the Thunder. They give up the seventh-fewest points in the paint (39.5) per and have more able big bodies than they've had in the past with a four-man rotation of Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison and Steven Adams throwing their weight around in the paint.

Season Series: Memphis Grizzlies
DateOklahoma City ThunderMemphis Grizzlies
Dec. 11116100
Jan. 148790
Feb. 38677

Additionally, while Tony Allen is still an all-world defender, he can’t match the size of Kevin Durant, and Tayshaun Prince is about four years past his prime.

The result has been OKC winning the season series, 3-1, with Gasol playing in three of those matchups. It won’t be easy by any means, but the Grizzlies can’t harass Durant and they can’t shoot the three-pointer well (19th in NBA at 35.3 percent via ESPN).


2. Dallas Mavericks

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - MARCH 16: Kevin Durant #35 of the Oklahoma City Thunder stands on the court during a game against Dirk Nowitzki #41 of the Dallas Mavericks on March 16, 2014 at the Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User
Layne Murdoch/Getty Images

The choice between Memphis and the Dallas Mavericks is very close, but ultimately the Mavs pose a greater threat because Shawn Marion is a better matchup for Durant than Tony Allen, and Dallas is lethal from behind the three-point line.

And that has played out during their regular-season matchups, with the Mavs taking two of three encounters, including a 23-point blowout in Chesapeake Energy Arena, where Dallas put up 109 points and hit 13 threes on 54-percent shooting from downtown.

Season Series: Dallas Mavericks
DateDallas MavericksOklahoma City Thunder
Nov. 693107
Mar. 1610986
Mar. 25119128 (OT)

OKC holds a distinctive advantage at point guard, where neither Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis nor Devin Harris are sticking Russell Westbrook, but the Mavs are efficient enough offensively—third best in NBA according to ESPN—to make it an interesting series.


1. Golden State Warriors

OAKLAND, CA - MARCH 20: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors attempts a free throw shot against Milwaukee Bucks on March 20, 2014 at Oracle Arena in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading a
Rocky Widner/Getty Images

The Golden State Warriors were considered a legitimate contender to win the West entering the season after an eye-opening playoff run last year and the offseason addition of Andre Iguodala. They’ve underperformed—including some unexpected offensive troubles—but nobody wants to play this team in the playoffs.

Struggle though they might, they are loaded with talent and have the potential to explode offensively on any given night.

Season Series: Golden State Warriors
DateOklahoma City ThunderGolden State Warriors
Nov. 14115116
Nov. 29113 (OT)112
Jan. 17127121

OKC and Golden State have crossed paths three times this season, and every game has been hard-fought—especially the first two, which were decided by a total of two points.

The first order of business for anybody to beat the Thunder is the unenviable task of trying to contain Durant. It’s an impossible task for three games, let alone seven, but the Dubs have two perimeter stoppers—Harrison Barnes and the aforementioned Iguodala—with the length, athleticism and defensive tenacity to make things difficult on the soon-to-be MVP.

They showed that disruptive potential in the first two games, holding Durant to 22.5 points per game on 34 percent shooting:

Durant vs. Dubs
GameField Goals MadeField Goals AttemptedPoints

Of course, Durant then detonated for a career-high 54 points in their third meeting—a reminder of just how unstoppable he is when he’s in the zone.

But the combination of Iguodala and Barnes are the only team with two defenders that can legitimately match up with Durant in a playoff series, and that makes Golden State a threat.

Additionally, the Warriors have the versatility to keep up with OKC if they play big (Andrew Bogut and David Lee) or small (with only one of those big men on the court).

But the deadliest aspect of Golden State is the Splash Brothers and the explosiveness of the team as a whole from beyond the arc.

The Warriors are the fifth-best team in the league, shooting 37.4 percent from downtown, which is problematic for a Thunder team that gives up the third-most threes per game (24.2).

The Warriors are too talented offensively and boast the third-best defense in the league (in terms of defensive efficiency—points allowed per 100 possessions). A neutral fan would be dying to see these two square off in the postseason, but Thunder fans shouldn’t want it.


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