The 2009 U.S. Open Six Pack

There he is in all of his glory, the chosen one, Tiger Woods!

All hail Tiger, for he is, and will probably be the greatest golfer to EVER walk the planet!

Let’s just say that all of my six pack selections will be hedged with one big bet on Tiger this week. More on that in a minute, please read on.

Before we get into all of the glory and grandeur that is The U.S. Open, let’s reflect back to last weeks victory at The Stanford St. Jude Classic by a one, Brian Gay.

You may recall he was one of my selections in the six pack and was a true steal at 40:1 odds. Come Wednesday, you would have been lucky to see him at 30:1 or higher.

They must be on to me.

Gay marked the sixth winner I have pegged in my six pack this year. Coincidentally, the last winner I picked was…

That’s right, Brian Gay!

I nailed him down to win The Verizon Heritage Open, another tourney in which he dominated the field and won wire-to-wire. Even more coincidental, is the fact that LAST YEAR I picked Justin Leonard to win the St. Jude Classic at 30/1, and guess what? He also won!

Just so you are aware, there are sports books that offer up odds that are about 1/5 the odds to win, if your golfer comes in T5 or better. Why do I mention this? Because I also bet the T5 option, EVERY week.

I have hit 22 T5 or better guys this year so far, and remarkably, FIVE of those guys have come in 2nd!!! That’s right I have just missed having 11 winners in golf this year, which is truly an amazing feat.

Please do no infer my confidence portrayed in this article as bragging. I am simply passing on information that is designed to help YOU, the fantasy player, and sports gambler.

Enjoy it while it’s free.

The U.S. Open sees it’s return to the Black Course of Bethpage in Farmingdale, NY on Long Island. This course is LONG and STRONG.

The premium here is not placed as much on accuracy, as it is on pure unadulterated LENGTH off the tee. This fact has weighed heavily in my selections this week.

Bethpage has been improving it’s course since the Open was last played there in 2002. It will entice the big boys even more. “Drive for show, putt for dough,” has never been a more appropriate cliché.

If last years U.S. Open is even 10 percent as great as last year, it will be more than ample entertainment. Last year U.S. Open was probably one of the most incredible tourneys I can remember seeing, EVER. I think this year shapes up nicely for a good ‘ol showdown with Tiger and Phil.

No matter what, I just don’t see Tiger losing the U.S. Open this year. Even though Phil will be the sentimental crowd favorite.

Hardcore Sports Radio co-host Cam Stewart was heard stating earlier today on the show Morency, “He (Tiger) uses regular tournaments to work things out and tweak his game to win majors. Much like the rest of the field uses the driving range to work things out for competing in regular tournaments.”

I couldn’t have said it better myself. Tiger is truly a different breed.

Before we get into the six pack, I’d like to let you in on who I am playing this week in the Yahoo fantasy pool. I still am ahead of all four of their “experts” with 3472 points on the year. The closest expert is Matt Romig with 3340. I am in 629th place out of over 75,000+ others. Not too shabby.

GROUP A will have the Teflon-like Tiger Woods starting, while the skilled Geoff Ogilvy backs him up.

GROUP B will see the smooth Steve Stricker and the stealthy Graeme McDowell starting, while The rock solid, 6’4” young studs Nick Watney and Dustin Johnson back them up.

GROUP C is going to give Henrik Stenson a chance to redeem himself after last weeks dismal showing, while possible sleeper, Matt Kuchar, backs him up.

I have spent many, many hours researching this event and when I started to make my cuts, I still had 18 guys to trim down to six. It was NOT easy. I placed a premium on driving distance, par breaking ability, and putting average. There were other factors, but I like my six selections a lot.

That being said, I mentioned I am hedging all of my bets with a bigger bet on Tiger.

You regulars must be thinking, “Hey Bottom Line Jay, you never pick a guy to repeat a tournament, and you never pick a guy that is lower than 20:1 odds. What gives?”

You guys are right, but we are talking about Tiger Woods, who I think is going to win. We are also talking about a major here. I don’t think he will steamroll anyone, because this course is simply too difficult, but he will do what he does best, win.

Basically here’s how the “hedge” works. If I lay $10 on each golfer in my six pack, that totals a risk of $60. Tiger is currently 1.75:1 odds to win. So I will lay an additional seventh bet down, of $35, on Tiger Woods. That way, I break even when Tiger wins, otherwise, I get fat and cash in when one of my six pack takes it instead.

So without further ado, I present the illustrious six pack of Bottom Line Jay…

No. 1 Geoff Ogilvy

I was lucky to get my bet in early on Ogilvy. It was a true no-brainer to take him seeing as though he is a former US Open winner (see photo).

Ogilvy has two victories on the year, and is truly one of golf's premium players on tour.

Geoff has managed to control earlier "rage" problems that he battled early in his career.

Perhaps that energy has been funneled into his driver. Ogilvy’s average distance off the tee is a whopping 293 yards, which ranks 36th.

Ogilvy can putt too. He ranks seventh on tour in putts per round at an even 28.

Ogilvy leads the PGA tour in money earned at just over $3.3 million in 2009. I also like the fact that he ranks first in birdie average with 4.48 birdies per round.

Please search around to find him at 20:1, otherwise, I would still advise picking him up to 15:1, if you still can. This man is a proven competitor, and thrives on intense situations.

No. 2 Kenny Perry

I almost fell off my chair when I saw Kenny Perry listed at 50:1 odds.

These odds are ridiculous for such a high quality man. I say man, not player, because he is the definition of a real man, in my opinion. Sports books continue to denigrate him for his two hole crumbling at The Masters. Just so you know, his loss there, has affected more people than I can count.

One of those people, and perhaps the most important one, that is no longer affects, is none other than Kenny Perry himself.

The fire in his soul that burns hot for a major victory is searing like an inferno right now. The Masters gave him a taste of a dish so delicious, that he must simply order it up again, and devour it whole.

This class act's recent play has been good. His past performances at the U.S. Open are factors in why his odds are so high. How else could you explain why he was 60:1 at The Masters?!

He never played well at Augusta in years past. What people continue to ignore, is that Kenny Perry is playing the best golf of his life, RIGHT NOW!

This 47 year old crusher hammers the ball an impressive 293 yards off the tee, on average.

Kenny is an above average putter, ranking 89th on tour with 28.98 putts per round.

He ranks fifth in All Around performance, and ranks second in Ball Striking, which is a combination of total driving, and GIR %. That is a HUGE stat for this event.

It is with a pearly white smile that I pronounce Kenny Perry part of my six pack at a whopping 50:1 odds.

No. 3 Hunter Mahan

I am going back to the well with one of my favorite players.

Pictured above is Hunter after his 2007 win at The Travelers Championship (I believe I may have called that one).

Mahan is a perfect 14/14 in cuts made this year. He has been in the top 20 twice at the U.S. Open in his young career, and has played consistently good in his last five events.

Hunter knows how to use his Ping G5 driver. After all he averages 295 yards of the tee, which ranks 31st and can putt decently averaging 28.86 putts per round which ranks 73rd.

This young gun averages 4.1 birdies per round which ranks 11th. If he can limit his occasional “bad” holes to bogeys, this guy can go very, very low.

At 60:1 odds, I think Hunter Mahan has matured into a worthy U.S. Open rival.

No. 4 Nick Watney

I am still not sure people know who this guy is.

Well, he was this years Buick Invitational winner, but who cares?

Nick Watney is one of the PGA’s finest young players, who is very much starting to get noticed, and here’s why:

Nick averages 302.7 yards off the tee, which ranks fifth, and he averages 28.65 putts per round which ranks a very respectable 56th.

Watney’s all-around ranking is eighth, and he ranks first on tour in Par Five birdies or better, at 58 percent. That stat alone, got him into my six pack.

I like this kid. I like his attitude, and I like his skills. Watch Fresno State alum, Nick Watney contend at Bethpage this weekend. After all he is 60:1 odds to win.

No. 5 Bubba Watson

Here's one on my two long shots.

Anyone named Bubba, is probably the true long shot, come to think of it.

Why Bubba Watson? What has he done this year?

Watson has made a respectable nine of 13 cuts this year and has played very nicely in his last five events. Except for one cut, he has had a T42, T2,T37, and a T23. I like this progression.

Watson placed T5 at the U.S. Open in 2007, so he has some experience with success at a major championship..

Oh by the way, did I mention he ranks 1st in driving distance on tour? Yeah, he's an average of 313.2 yards off the tee.

Now that's LOOOOOOONG.

Surprisingly, Watson is a relatively good putter, averaging 28.67 putts per round, ranking 57th.

Watson also leads all other golfers in the PGA for eagles made in 2009 at thirteen.

Another great stat about Bubba, is his Par Breaker percentage of 22.7 percent which ranks 19th on tour.

I don't know if he will be there come Sunday, but if he wins, he offers a juicy 100:1 payout.

No. 6 Dustin Johnson

Another winner in 2009 is the one and only young standout, Dustin Johnson.

After gathering myself back into my chair upon seeing Kenny Perry's odds, I quickly ended up on the floor again, after seeing this pure talent at 100:1

I could not click my mouse fast enough. Sure enough, his odds went shooting to 60:1 on my book this morning. Hunt around and see if anyone is sleeping behind the wheel, because calling this kid a long shot should be a crime.

Dustin is a long baller, averaging 307.9 yards on his drives, which ranks third on tour.

D.J. is an "okay" putter ranking 86th on tour, averaging just under 29 putts per round.

The two stats that set Dustin Johnson apart from the field, are his impressive 68.9 percent GIR percentage that ranks ninth, and his first place Par Four birdie or better percentage of 21.68 percent.

If he plays his game, Bethpage Black plays right into his hands.

I got Dustin Johnson an an unbelievable 100:1 odds to win. He is still a value at half that, so click away on D.J. as long as he is 50:1 or higher.

Enjoy the second major of the year, I know I will!