NCAA Bracket 2014: Updated Picks and Odds for Sweet 16

Adam WellsFeatured ColumnistMarch 25, 2014

If there's one thing to say about the NCAA tournament, it's that no game is ever lost before the final buzzer sounds. 

The structure of these games, with more television timeouts and coaches constantly calling for time when it looks like things are getting out of hand, prevents one team from staying in a rhythm for too long. 

It's maddening at times to watch, because you just want to see the teams play, but it makes predicting these games and setting odds nearly impossible. That's not enough to stop us from taking the plunge, so here is a look at the current spreads and deeper analysis on notable matchups. 


Sweet 16 Bracket and Odds

DateRegional SemifinalsTime (ET)TVOdds
March 27SouthNo. 10 Stanford vs. No. 11 Dayton7:15 p.m.CBSStanford (-2.5)
March 27WestNo. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Baylor7:47 p.m.TBSWisconsin (-4)
March 27SouthNo. 1 Florida vs. No. 4 UCLA9:45 p.m.CBSFlorida (-5.5)
March 27WestNo. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 San Diego State10:17 p.m.TBSArizona (-6)
March 28MidwestNo. 2 Michigan vs. No. 11 Tennessee7:15 p.m.CBSMichigan (-2)
March 28EastNo. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 7 Connecticut7:27 p.m.TBSPick 'Em
March 28MidwestNo. 4 Louisville vs. No. 8 Kentucky9:45 p.m.CBSLouisville (-5)
March 28EastNo. 1 Virginia vs. No. 4 Michigan State9:57 p.m.TBSMichigan State (-1)

Odds courtesy of


Picking Key Games Against the Spread

South Region: No. 1 Florida (-5.5) vs. No. 4 UCLA

After a sluggish game against Albany in the round of 64, the Florida Gators looked more like themselves against Pittsburgh. 

The Panthers scored just 45 points on 37.3 percent shooting. Florida also got 10 steals in the victory, including at least one from each starter. More impressive than the low shooting percentage and point totals is Pittsburgh managed just six free-throw attempts. 

Things get tougher for the Gators now, as UCLA will be the best offense they have played, by far, in the tournament. The Bruins averaged 81.8 points per game in the regular season and have put up 153 in two tournament games. 

However, this is not a matchup that has been favorable for the Bruins in recent years. Look at this little note from Josh Goldman of Fox Sports Live after the matchup was set.

UCLA vs. Florida 2006 Championship Game Loss 2007 Final Four Loss 2011 Round of 32 Loss 2014 Sweet 16 Hopeful #UCLA #MarchMadness

— Josh Goldman (@JoshtheGoldman) March 24, 2014

With all the focus on Florida's defense against UCLA's offense, don't forget the Gators ranked 54th in offensive efficiency this season and the Bruins were 178th in scoring defense. 

UCLA did defeat an Arizona team in the Pac-12 tournament that's similar to Florida on the defensive end of the ball and slightly better on offense with 112.3 points per 100 possessions. 

The Gators are going to be tested more in this game than in either of their first two tournament matchups, but the Bruins' overall lack of experience puts them at a disadvantage against Billy Donovan's team. 

Prediction: Florida 67, UCLA 63


Midwest Region: No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 4 Michigan State (-1)

In what is sure to be the best heavyweight battle of the Sweet 16, Virginia looks to prove it's more than a team that succeeded in a mediocre year for the ACC by going up against the wizard of March, Tom Izzo, and Michigan State. 

Considering all the attention Michigan State got before the tournament, it should come as no surprise that Izzo's group is getting an overwhelming majority of support from the bettors. 

The most lopsided #Sweet16 game so far is #MichiganState vs. #Virginia, with 79% of spread bets taking the Spartans -1. #MarchMadness

— (@SportsInsights) March 24, 2014

Despite being the lower seed, the Spartans should be the favorites entering this game. They are one of the most balanced teams in the country, ranking 21st in offensive efficiency and 51st in defensive efficiency. 

More impressive is the way Izzo's team doesn't have to rely on one player to win a game. Adreian Payne had 41 points against Delaware, but gave way to Branden Dawson (26 points) against Harvard. 

Virginia had the stingiest defense in college basketball this season, giving up an average of 55.5 points per game. That hasn't changed much so far in the tournament, with Coastal Carolina and Memphis averaging 59.5 points per game. 

Both teams are loaded with upperclassmen who won't be intimidated by the bright lights of the Sweet 16. 

The difference is Izzo knows how to coach in games like this, having made it to the Sweet 16 12 times since 1998. Virginia's Tony Bennett is coaching his first Sweet 16 game since 2008 with Washington State. 

It's going to be a knockdown, drag out fight that the Spartans pull out in thrilling fashion. 

Prediction: Michigan State 63, Virginia 60


Note: All stats courtesy of unless otherwise noted. 

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter. 


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