Frank Franklin II/Associated Press
When: Thursday at 7:15 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Betting Line: Stanford -3
The Challenge: Stopping Stanford's Chasson Randle
Save for Saint Joseph's Langston Galloway scoring 31 points against them in the A-10 tournament, the Dayton Flyers have done a pretty good job this season of frustrating their opponents' assertive guards.
Massachusetts' Chaz Williams shot 5-of-17 against Dayton. Syracuse's Tyler Ennis was 7-of-21 Saturday.
And there's no good reason for you to know that Fordham's Branden Frazier and Jon Severe ranked in the top five in the A-10 in scoring this year, but they shot a combined 20-of-69 (29.0 percent) in two games against Dayton (for sake of comparison, Fordham's duo shot 14-of-26 for 52 points against Syracuse and 22-of-39 for 60 points against Harvard).
Randle has averaged 18.7 points on 12.5 field-goal attempts per game this season. If Dayton can do to him what it did to those other guards, the Flyers should be in great shape.
The Noteworthy Numbers
Each of the 16 teams left standing ranks in the top 21 of Ken Pomeroy's Pythagorean formula.
That is, except for these two teams. Stanford ranks 34th, while Dayton checks in at 43rd place. Neither has scored more than 60 points yet in a tournament game, even though they both averaged just over 73 points per game during the season.
The number I'm most intrigued by in this game, however, is the one that usually gets ignored in the box score: blocked shots.
Stanford ranks fourth in the nation in percentage of two-point attempts blocked on offense, while Dayton ranks 310th. Dayton isn't much better on the defensive end, ranking 273rd in percentage of opponents' two-pointers blocked. Stanford ranks 98th.
Thus far in the tournament, Stanford has "out-blocked" its opponents by a 9-4 margin, and Dayton has been out-blocked 11-4. If Stanford's bigs (Stefan Nastic, Dwight Powell and Josh Huestis) can stay out of foul trouble, Dayton's guards will have all sorts of trouble getting to the rim.
The X-factor: Stanford's three-point shooting
In the round of 32, Syracuse was 0-of-10 from three-point range against Dayton, and Stanford was 0-of-9 against Kansas. The chances of that trend continuing that drastically are pretty slim, especially considering Stanford shot better than 50 percent against New Mexico and 37 percent for the season.
But if the Flyers can hold Randle and Anthony Brown in check from long range, it'll greatly improve their chances.
Upset Meter Reading: 3.5/10