Syracuse vs. Dayton Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistMarch 21, 2014

BUFFALO, NY - MARCH 20: Tyler Ennis #11 celebrates with Albert Nassar #33 of the Syracuse Orange after defeating the Western Michigan Broncos 77-53 during the second round of the 2014 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at the First Niagara Center on March 20, 2014 in Buffalo, New York.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Elsa/Getty Images

You may want to think twice about siding against the lower seed in this clash, as No. 11 seeds have won four of the past six meetings with No. 3 seeds.

Dayton rode the heroics of a Vee Sanford layup with 3.8 seconds left to hold off Ohio State on Thursday, while Syracuse used its trademark zone defense to thwart Western Michigan.

Syracuse was in this same position in 2011 and lost to No. 11-seeded Marquette, but oddsmakers are confident that they have learned their lesson.


Spread and total points scored betting line

The Orange opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 126.5. (Compare lines and consensus data on the Odds Shark matchup report)


Odds Shark computer pick

70.4-67.2 Orange


Why pick Dayton to cover the spread

The Flyers never backed down from the Buckeyes and will bring that confidence into this game against a Syracuse team that struggled down the stretch prior to this event.

Dayton checks in on a number of win streaks against the point spread, including 7-3 when catching points and 9-4 overall.


Why pick Syracuse to cover the spread

The Orange may have shook off their funk with a much-needed blowout win over Western Michigan, and that confidence could spill over into this game.

Syracuse got a combined 34 points from its backcourt tandem of Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis, while its stringent defense forced 11 first-half turnovers that resulted in 13 points.

They have trended OVER the total lately and need only look back three years to remember the perils of underestimating a No. 11 seed. They lost to Marquette that year.


Smart betting pick

This is a big number for the ‘Cuse to lay against a Dayton team that hails from the always-tough Atlantic 10. The Flyers caught +7 points or more three times this season and not only covered all three, but also won all three outright (defeating Georgia Tech, Gonzaga and Saint Louis).

And all three were away from Dayton. Take the underdog and the points here.


Power rankings

Dayton Flyers: No. 48

Syracuse Orange: No. 117 (per Odds Shark power ranks)


March Madness betting trends

  • No. 11 seeds have won four of their past six meetings vs No. 3 seeds
  • Dayton 9-4 ATS past 13 games overall
  • Dayton 7-3 ATS past 10 games as underdogs
  • Syracuse played five straight OVERs
  • Syracuse lost as a No. 3 seed vs an 11 in 2011 (Marquette)


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