No. 2 seeds have beaten No. 7 seeds 10 games in a row in recent NCAA tournaments.
The Michigan Wolverines hope that trend continues when they battle the Texas Longhorns in a 2 vs. 7 contest in the Midwest Region on Saturday afternoon in Milwaukee.
And they have won eight straight games when laying points, while Texas has slumped to a 2-6-1 against-the-spread mark in its past nine games overall.
Spread and total points scored betting line
The Wolverines opened as five-point favorites; the total was 140. (Compare lines and consensus data on the Odds Shark matchup report)
Odds Shark computer pick
74.1-69.3 Michigan Wolverines
Why pick Texas to cover the spread
The Longhorns are a No. 7 seed in the tournament after going 11-7 in a tough Big 12 conference this season. Texas then began this tournament with a thrilling 87-85 victory over Arizona State on Thursday night, getting the game-winning bucket on a put-back by big Cameron Ridley at the buzzer.
The Longhorns shot 53 percent from the field Thursday and had six players score at least 11 points. Texas hasn't been all that efficient at throwing the ball in the hole this season, but it also ranks among the best in the country at keeping opponents from doing so, holding foes to 40 percent shooting.
While Texas is winless in three games against No. 2 seeds since 1996, they are 3-0 against the spread in those games, according to the March Madness database.
Why pick Michigan to cover the spread
The No. 2 Wolverines, who won the Big Ten's regular-season title, took care of business in their tournament opener Thursday, beating Wofford 57-40, shooting 48 percent from the field. They limited the Terriers to just 34 percent shooting and covered the spread as 15-point favorites.
So Michigan is now 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 tournament games. The Wolverines haven't always played the greatest defense this season, but they make up for it by shooting 48 percent from the floor and just under 40 percent from three-point range.
Smart betting pick
Texas had lost five of its last eight games coming into the tournament, and is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. And the Longhorns played probably their best game in weeks on Thursday night, giving a full effort in the victory over Arizona State.
Can they give a repeat performance of that effort this Saturday? Considering they probably won't shoot 50 percent again, our recommendation is to give the points and go with Michigan to continue its trend of winning when giving points at the betting window.
Texas Longhorns: No. 176
Michigan Wolverines: No. 49 (per Odds Shark power ranks)
Texas vs Michigan betting trends
- 2 seeds have won 10 straight vs 7 seeds
- Texas 2-6-1 ATS past nine games overall
- Michigan won eight straight games when favored
- First meeting since 1996 (UT won 80-76)
- Texas 0-3 SU, 3-0 ATS vs 2 seeds since 1996