Nebraska vs. Baylor Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistMarch 19, 2014

Baylor guard Brady Heslip (5) attempts to get by Kansas' Wayne Selden, Jr. (1) on a drive to the basket in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Tuesday, Feb. 4, 2014, in Waco, Texas. Kansas won 69-52.  (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

The Baylor Bears enter this NCAA tournament having won 10 of their last 12 games, covering the spread in eight of their last 12 outings.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers finished on a moneymaking run of their own, with 14 covers in their last 17 games.

Two teams who have been playing some pretty good ball as of late tip off when the Bears and Huskers meet in the West Region's 6 vs. 11 game Friday afternoon in San Antonio.


Spread and Total Points Scored Betting Line

The Bears opened as 2.5-point favorites. The total was 131.5. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report)


Odds Shark Computer Pick

70.0-65.7 Bears


Why Pick Nebraska to Cover the Spread

The Huskers were actually picked to finish last in the Big Ten by some experts this season. Instead, Big Red broke in its new arena with its best season yet in the Big Ten, going 11-7 to finish fourth and grabbing an at-large NCAA tournament bid, making the Dance for the first time since 1998.

Nebraska started this season 8-3, but lost its first four Big Ten games. The Huskers then won 11 of their last 14 games, beating the likes of Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin along the way to earn a No. 11 seed.

Nebraska doesn't dazzle on offense, but it does play some defense, holding opponents to 65 points per game this season. They are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine games vs. Baylor from their Big 12 days.


Why Pick Baylor to Cover the Spread

After missing the NCAA tournament last year (but winning the NIT), the Bears are back with an at-large bid. Baylor started this season 12-1, with wins over Colorado, Dayton and Kentucky, the only loss in that span coming against Syracuse.

The No. 6 Bears then endured a 1-7 slide, but recovered to go on a 7-1 run, with four victories over tournament-bound teams. Baylor then won three in a row to make it to the Big 12 conference championship game.

The Bears have four players averaging 11 points per game or more this season, and as a team they're shooting 39 percent from three-point land.


Smart Betting Pick

Baylor is getting some pre-tournament ink as a possible Cinderella, and why not? The Bears seem to have recovered from their midseason swoon and are battle-tested after going 10-9 in games against tournament qualifiers.

Nebraska is a nice story, getting back to the tournament when few thought they could, but this should be the end, at least for this season. Give the points and back the Bears, just like the computer says.


Power Rankings

Nebraska Cornhuskers: No. 68

Baylor Bears: No. 37 (per Odds Shark power ranks)


March Madness Betting Trends

  • Nebraska is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games vs. Baylor
  • Baylor 8-3-1 ATS in past 12 games
  • Nebraska is 14-3 ATS in past 17 games
  • UNDER is 12-4 in past 16 Husker games
  • First time in tourney for Huskers since 1998


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