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Stanford vs. New Mexico Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

New Mexico's  Kendall Williams, center front, celebrates with teammates after winning an NCAA college basketball game against San Diego State for the Mountain West Conference tournament championship on Saturday, March 15, 2014, in Las Vegas. New Mexico defeated San Diego State 64-58. (AP Photo/Isaac Brekken)
Isaac Brekken/Associated Press
OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistJune 24, 2016

The New Mexico Lobos step into their third consecutive NCAA tournament by opening their South Region matchup with the Stanford Cardinal on a 14-3 ATS run.

Both teams were in Las Vegas last week for their respective conference tournaments and now open in St. Louis.

After a losing streak in four previous March Madness tournaments, the No. 7 seeds rallied for a 3-1 against-the-spread edge last year against No. 10 schools and New Mexico is favored to keep that trend rolling in 2014.

 

Spread and total points scored betting line

The Lobos opened as three-point favorites; the total was 137.5. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report)

 

Odds Shark computer pick

70.1-66.0 New Mexico

 

Why pick Stanford to cover the spread

No. 10 Stanford, an at-large pick out of the Pac-12, is dancing for the first time since 2008, when it made it to the second weekend. The Cardinal have plenty to prove and with Duke grad Johnny Dawkins coaching his team in the tournament for the first time in his six-year tenure, Stanford is a dangerous entry.

 

Why pick New Mexico to cover the spread

The Lobos, seeded at No. 7, arrive as the Mountain West Conference tournament champs. And though they’re just 3-9 against the point spread in the NCAA tournament since 1997, this is a team that could make a run to the third weekend if teams overlook its highly talented frontcourt.

Tournament MVP Cameron Bairstow leads a talented roster that makes it easy to pick the Lobos each time out. They arrive here on a 14-3 ATS run.

 

Smart betting pick

There’s a reason the Lobos are on an 11-2 under run and that reason is defense. Between Bairstow and 7-footer Alex Kirk manning the paint, and Hugh Greenwood fueling the D on the perimeter, New Mexico will use its physical game to ground the Cardinal.

Stanford is mired in a 1-5-1 point spread slide and has failed to cover five of six tournament games. The Lobos are the smart betting pick against the point spread and the computer has them winning by four points.

 

Power rankings

Stanford Cardinal: No. 123

New Mexico Lobos: No. 18 (per Odds Shark power ranks)

 

March Madness betting trends

  • New Mexico 14-3 ATS run in last 17 games
  • Under is 11-2 last 13 New Mexico games
  • New Mexico 3-9 ATS in tournament since 1997
  • Stanford ended year on 1-5-1 ATS run
  • Stanford 1-5 ATS past six tournament games

 

Note: All spread and betting line data powered by Odds Shark - download the free Lines and Bet Tracker app in the Apple Store and on Google Play.

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