The New Mexico State Aggies ended the regular season on a 9-1 run, but they'll be trying to snap trends of 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread in NCAA tournament games since 1999 when they challenge the San Diego State Aztecs.
The West Region matchup Thursday night in Spokane sees the No. 4 seed favored by seven points and several intriguing trends for UNDER bettors.
Spread and Total Points Scored Betting Line
The Aztecs opened as six-point favorites; the total was 130. (Compare Lines and Consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report)
Odds Shark Computer Pick
Why Pick New Mexico State To Cover the Spread
The Aggies finished second in the WAC this season, then won the conference tournament to earn a third-straight NCAA tournament berth. New Mexico State lost four in a row back in December to the likes of New Mexico, Gonzaga and Arizona, but has gone 19-4 since.
The No. 13 Aggies are shooting 49 percent from the floor this season, while limiting opponents to just 40 percent shooting. They're also 3-1 ATS as underdogs on the betting line.
Why Pick San Diego State To Cover the Spread
The Aztecs won the Mountain West regular-season title this year, going 16-2, before losing to New Mexico in the conference tournament championship game. San Diego State started 21-1 this season, with wins over Creighton and Kansas. Their only loss in that span was to Arizona.
The No. 4 Aztecs, in the NCAA tournament for the fifth season in a row, don't impress offensively, but they're beasts on defense and hold foes to 57 points per game and 38 percent field-goal shooting on the year.
Smart Betting Pick
San Diego State is favored by a touchdown for this game and rightly so. But this one could get ugly.
The Aztecs can be very tough to score on and the Aggies aren't bad on defense, either. And in a game that might turn into a wrestling match, six points could be a lot. Take New Mexico State and the points.
New Mexico State Aggies: No. 101
San Diego State Aztecs: No. 9 (per Odds Shark power ranks)
March Madness betting trends
- UNDER is 13-5 past 18 SD State games
- SD State 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS past eight games as favorites
- New Mexico State ended season on 9-1 SU run
- New Mexico State is 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in tourney since 1999
- Aggies have played four straight tournament UNDERs
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