The 10 Most Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Players Entering 2014
Fantasy baseball drafts are in full swing. The season is full of promise for all fantasy baseball hopefuls. There are some players along the way that won’t provide the fantasy value of their current draft position. Try to avoid these players unless you can get them at a reasonable value.
I am using Fantasy Pros’ Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) to evaluate this group of players.
Jose Abreu, Chicago White sox
Jose Abreu has a ECR of 108 without a single big league at-bat. He is an unknown commodity after defecting from Cuba, where he hit .316 with 19 home runs and 60 RBI in 83 games.
The potential is there, but that's what you're drafting on. If you have a league-mate that buys into the hype, he could go off the board even sooner.
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
I don't care for Ryan Braun. That is a popular stance after his performance-enhancing drug use. Unfortunately, fantasy baseball players have to look past that because only the numbers matter. Braun lands on this list because his value is a little too high for my taste. Looking at the ECR, Braun has an overall rank of 11.
If he can step right in and put up the numbers we're accustomed to, I have no problem with that ranking. However, there is certainly risk involved assuming that Braun can maintain his numbers without chemical assistance. There's also the risk of another suspension should he test positive again.
There are safer first-round choices.
Everth Cabrera, San Diego Padres
Everth Cabrera can give you a good jump in the stolen base category. After all, he had 37 last year and 44 in 2012. That's about all he brings to the table though. He has never scored 60 runs in a season. Cabrera has just nine career home runs. His highest RBI total is 31. Cabrera hit .283 last year, but his career average is .252. An ECR of 99 is probably too early for a player that helps in just one category.
Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds
Billy Hamilton is ridiculously fast. That cannot be argued. Does that alone merit an ECR of 94? Hardly.
Hamilton has just 19 big league at-bats and hit .256 for Triple-A Louisville last year. He could give you a ton of steals, but at what cost to your batting average? If he's not ready, he could be sent down for more seasoning.
David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
As a Boston Red Sox fan, I love Big Papi. I usually don't shy away from the slugger and he hasn't disappointed. Last year hit .309 with 84 runs, 30 home runs and 103 RBI. He's 38 years old, and one would think Father Time will eventually catch up with him.
He only played six games at first base last year, making it unlikely that he has first-base eligibility. That limits Big Papi to your utility position, which reduces your roster flexibility. Ortiz can still produce, but with an ECR of 61, he's likely going a little before he should.
Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
Don't get me wrong, Buster Posey is my top-ranked catcher. Last year the hit .294 with 61 runs, 15 home runs and 72 RBI. Those are solid numbers, but are they worthy of a ECR of 47?
He's slightly ahead of Matt Holliday and Hunter Pence. Yadier Molina, who has a ECR of 90, hit .319 last year with 68 runs, 12 home runs and 80 RBI.
Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels overpaid for Prince Albert. Don't follow in their footsteps. His ECR of 46 is still inflated based on what Albert Pujols used to represent. Last year he hit .258 with 49 runs, 17 home runs and 64 RBI in 99 games.
He hit .285 with 30 home runs in 2012, but that was after .268 with a .794 OPS before the All-Star Break. Over the past three seasons he's hitting .265 with a .799 OPS before the All-Star break and .314 and .945 after. Let somebody else grab him and try to buy low if the slow start trend continues.
Hanley Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers
Hanley Ramirez hit .345 last year with 20 home runs, but he was limited to 86 games. He has averaged 111.7 games over the past three seasons. Prior to turning things around last year, Hanley had not been an elite fantasy option since 2010. He's a bit risky for an ECR of 10 given his recent history.
Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers
Max Scherzer went 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP and 240 strikeouts. Those numbers rightfully moved Scherzer up the rankings. His ECR is 27.
Look for a regression because he set the bar so high, but he should still be one of the game’s top pitchers. Cole Hamels at 86 is a much better value than Scherzer. You can add a quality bat like Freddie Freeman, Yasiel Puig or Jose Bautista and grab Hamels later where you would be looking at bats like Joe Mauer or Pedro Alverez.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
My main issue with Troy Tulowitzki is his durability. He's a rock star when he's healthy, but Tulo has averaged just 109.5 games over the past four seasons. With a ECR of 15 there are more durable options to go after. Ian Desmond, for example, has a ECR of 40, which is a much better value than Tulo presents.