Fantasy Risks in 2009

(updated)

In this article I will take a look at more potential fantasy picks that could cause you more harm than good.

It has always been a strategy of mine to take relatively safe picks in the first few rounds of your fantasy draft.

Your first three to four picks should be locks to produce at least an average amount of points for their position.

Remember, a fantasy season is not won in the early rounds, but in drafting late round sleepers that could end the season as must-have starters. Take your risks late in the draft.

I will therefore point out some high risk players who are predicted to be taken in the first, second, or third rounds of this years' fantasy drafts.

Keep in mind, these players may only be risks due to their high rankings.

First, I would like to explain three main reason why I suspect a player is a risk to draft:

1. The player has been injured or is injured

2. They have had only one good season, and it was possibly a fluke

3. The player is sharing carries with another back

Ok, let's get started.

Philadelphia Eagles: Brian Westbrook, RB

Brian Westbrook has already had a busy off-season and it's only June. Westbrook has undergone two surgeries proving his health may be in question for the 2009 season.

Not only is the 30-year-old back injury-prone, but the Eagles seem eager to replace Westbrook as they drafted LeSean McCoy in the 2009 draft.

Westbrook began to see a decline in his stats last year as his 1,200-yard rushing streak ended. Expect this decrease to continue into the 2009 season as he continues to get older.

If you decide to take the chance on this first-round pick, it would be smart to grab McCoy in the late rounds, as well.

Denver Broncos: Brandon Marshall, WR

Brandon Marshall should see a major dip in his stats this year with the departure of Pro-Bowl QB Jay Cutler.

With Kyle Orton replacing Jay Cutler, Marshall will definitely see a decrease in his stats.

The star receiver underwent hip surgery this off-season and is also looking to settle contract negotiations. These factors could translate into a decrease of preparation and ultimately production.

Marshall is currently ranked as the tenth best WR this year. This prediction is strongly based on his outstanding performance last year and barely takes into account the QB change.

There is little chance Marshall will put up numbers similar to last year and is a high-risk pick this season.

San Diego Chargers: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB

LT shocked the fantasy world last year by putting up sub-par fantasy stats. You should not expect much of a change in 2009.

Tomlinson was plagued with a knee injury in 2008 and you can expect to see parts of that linger throughout this upcoming season.

Another key reason Tomlinson may be a risk this year is due to the emerging running back, Darren Sproles. Sproles will see more carries this year and further cut away at LT's productiveness.

If you gamble on Tomlinson be sure to pick up Sproles in the mid-rounds in order to secure the San Diego backfield.

Arizona Cardinals: Kurt Warner, QB

Kurt Warner could see a dangerous drop in stats and points this season as a fantasy QB.

Warner is about to turn thirty eight years old. You have to wonder if last year's season was Warner's last successful stretch.

Leading his team to the Super Bowl last year only to be disappointed, may discourage the QB from performing at his highest level.

Even two of the most dangerous WRs in the league might not be enough to keep this QB effective.

Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson, RB

Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans could be a risky option due to the presence of LenDale White in the backfield.

If Johnson is incapable of breaking for twenty yard scores like he lived off of last year, he will see a significant amount of goal line carries lost to White.

This, along with the fact that Johnson is entering only his second season, could lead to a decrease in numbers.

Johnson is a relatively unproven back who made a living off of his speed in 2008.

It may be a risky move to take this sophomore in the first round of this upcoming draft.

St. Louis Cardinals: Steven Jackson, RB

Steven Jackson stands out as a fantasy risk this year due to consistently disappointing seasons.

While Jackson has had to deal with injury and other restricting problems, he has not seen a large amount of success from a fantasy standpoint.

Another main reason Jackson may be a risk this year has to do with the St. Louis Rams. The Rams deplete Jackson's value significantly, as it takes a winning team to be a productive running back.

Watch out for Jackson this year as he is ranked fairly high and could be a dangerous option.