Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds Analysis, Prediction, Trends ColumnistMarch 6, 2014

After fouling San Antonio Spurs' Tim Duncan (21), Miami Heat's LeBron James (6) reacts as he is charged with a technical foul also, during the second half of an NBA basketball game in Miami, Sunday, Jan. 26, 2014. The Heat won 113-101. (AP Photo/J Pat Carter)
J Pat Carter/Associated Press

In a potential preview of the NBA Finals, last season's finalists meet for a second time this season, with the two-time defending champion Heat looking to complete the season sweep of San Antonio.

The Heat won their first meeting with San Antonio 113-101 on Jan. 26 in Miami and they look to continue their profitable run as underdogs (11-4 against the spread in 15 games since the 2012 NBA Finals).


Point Spread

San Antonio opened as three-point favorites, but it has been bet down to -2.5 at some shops monitored by The total opened at 207.5. (Line updates and matchup report details).


Why Miami can cover the spread

Though Miami (43-15 SU, 29-29 ATS) visits San Antonio after Tuesday's tough-luck loss against the Houston Rockets, the Heat are also in on an 8-2 run, while LeBron James is looking more and more like a four-time MVP headed toward his fifth.

James, who averages 27.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game this season, is averaging 32.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists over his last nine games played.


Why San Antonio can cover the spread

Momentum is flowing for the Spurs (44-16 SU, 29-31 ATS), who have now won four in a row after scoring the road win in Cleveland on Tuesday. Going back further, San Antonio has won eight of its last 10.

The Spurs are peaking at the right time, as the defending Western Conference champs are 1.5 games back of Oklahoma City in the conference. They're also clinging to a 2.5-game lead over the Rockets in the Southwest Division.


Smart Pick

As tempting as it is to play the Spurs, knowing their experience is always valuable, it's hard to trust them against Miami right now. Dating back to last season, including the NBA Finals, the Heat have won seven of the 10 meetings.

Miami swept the regular-season series last year, and will be out to do the same this season. The Spurs have failed to cover five of six in San Antonio. Take the Heat plus the points tonight.



  • Miami is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games
  • Miami is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
  • Miami is 11-4 ATS in its past 15 games as underdogs
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of San Antonio's last 10 games
  • San Antonio is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games


Power rankings

Miami No. 13, San Antonio No. 16 (per Odds Shark NBA basketball power ranks)


Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.