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Notre Dame vs. North Carolina: Odds Preview and Spread Prediction

North Carolina's James Michael McAdoo celebrates following a dunk against UNC Wilmington during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Chapel Hill, N.C., Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2013. North Carolina won 84-51. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
Gerry Broome/Associated Press
OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistMarch 3, 2014

The North Carolina Tar Heels look to sweep the season series against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Monday night, and oddsmakers opened them as strong favorites to repeat their 73-62 win at South Bend earlier this season.

The Irish, meanwhile, are finishing up their inaugural season in the ACC tonight and won't return to the floor until the ACC tournament begins next week.

 

Point Spread

North Carolina opened as 11-point favorites, and that number was holding through Monday afternoon. The total was 144.5 (line updates and matchup report).

 

Odds Shark Prediction

80-65, North Carolina.

 

Why Notre Dame can cover the spread

The fact that the Irish are catching North Carolina (22-7, 12-4 ACC) in a potential look-ahead spot automatically makes the underdog a potential cover.

The Tar Heels will travel to play Duke on Saturday, and even though they're not battling for first place this season, it's still the No. 1 rivalry in college basketball. The Heels know the Devils are out for revenge.

 

Why North Carolina can cover the spread

Since a three-game losing streak that opened conference play (falling at Wake Forest, to Miami and at Syracuse), the Tar Heels have won 12 of 13 on the hardwood and have covered nine of 11.

On the flip side, they're catching a Notre Dame team (15-15, 6-11) on a down note, after it lost a disappointing home finale on Saturday to Pittsburgh, 85-81. They are also just 1-9 straight up in 10 games as underdogs, according to the Odds Shark college basketball odds database.

 

Smart Pick

The Tar Heels can cover the double digits, specifically because the Irish were deflated Saturday on senior night. Notre Dame has now lost four straight at the window and three of its last four straight up.

To travel into Chapel Hill to take on arguably the hottest team in the league, surging at the right time, is going to be a significant challenge for the struggling Irish. Lay the points.

 

Trends

  • North Carolina is 9-2 against the spread in its last 11 games.
  • Notre Dame is 1-7 SU in its last eight road games.
  • North Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 as favorites.
  • The Irish are on a 1-9 SU as underdogs.

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.

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