Definitely Dancing: Wichita State
On the Bubble: BYU, Gonzaga, Green Bay, North Dakota State, Southern Miss, Stephen F. Austin and Toledo
Coveting the Bubble: Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee
North Dakota State (18-6, RPI: 44, KP: 72)
The bubble is so weak (How weak is it?!) that the Summit League could conceivably send two teams to the NCAA tournament.
The Bison, bless their hearts, have played 15 true road games this season. The road win over Notre Dame doesn't look like much anymore, but it was pretty impressive in mid-December—back when the Irish were at full strength and nearly winning games away from home against Iowa and Ohio State.
There's certainly no guarantee that the Bison would get in by avoiding another loss until the Summit championship game, but their resume would be nearly identical to the one that sent Iona to the First Four in 2012.
BYU (19-10, RPI: 35, KP: 46)
The Cougars have won seven out of their last eight games, including back-to-back crucial wins over Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. They have two hurdles remaining: at San Diego on Saturday, and whichever low-ranking WCC team (perhaps San Diego again) they should happen to draw in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament.
Win both of those games and BYU should officially become a bracketologist's worst nightmare, as we have to make sure not to put the Cougars in a region or subregion that will play games on a Sunday.
Stephen F. Austin (23-2, RPI: 69, KP: 69)
The strength of schedule is ugly as sin, as the Lumberjacks are 0-1 vs. RPI Top 100. However, it has now been more than three months since their last loss. They might never be seriously considered for an at-large bid, but they'll at least get mentioned in the conversation.
Green Bay (19-5, RPI: 58, KP: 54)
The Phoenix have lost two out of their last seven games, but their RPI has actually improved a little bit thanks to the continued rise of Virginia and Wisconsin—each of which Green Bay played in the first month of the season.
If they lose to Cleveland State in the Horizon championship game, they'd still have some life in the at-large discussion. Lose to anyone else, though, and it would be their third loss to a team outside the RPI Top 150.
Gonzaga (22-6, RPI: 29, KP: 30)
Gonzaga has lost three consecutive road games and has another two in the next few days against Pacific and Saint Mary's. The Bulldogs are still in the field for now, but what happens if they lose these last two games and fail to win the WCC championship?
They have that brand-name strength from 15 straight NCAA tournament appearances, but if they end up with nine losses and just one RPI Top 50 win (vs. BYU), what exactly is distinguishing the Bulldogs from a team like Clemson or Utah?
Southern Miss (21-5, RPI: 33, KP: 68)
Just two weeks ago, the Golden Eagles were in fantastic position. They were 21-3 with a 3-1 record vs. the RPI Top 100.
But then they were spanked in back-to-back road games by UAB and Middle Tennessee.
They're still in decent shape, but one more regular-season loss or an early exit from the C-USA tournament, and it could be curtains.
Toledo (22-5, RPI: 31, KP: 98)
More often than not, the RPI and KP ranks are much more similar than the RPI haters care to admit.
In the case of Toledo, though, there's a great schism between the two ranking systems. This is largely because Toledo has made quite the habit of winning close games against inferior teams.
In 25 games against teams that don't rank in the Top 60 of either ranking system, the Rockets have four losses and 13 wins by 10 or fewer points. They haven't won a single game by more than 15 points in nearly two months.
The MAC is an OK conference by mid-major standards, but you would hope that an at-large type of team would have some decisive blowouts over the teams at the bottom of the standings. And now that they have four conference losses, it's getting harder to see the Rockets earning an at-large bid if they slip up in the MAC tournament.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.