Early Evaluation: NHL's 2009-2010 Breakout Forwards

Every year in the NHL we see a handful of young forwards have their breakout seasons, some expected, some unexpected.

Last year we saw forwards like David Krejci of the Boston Bruins, Joe Pavelski of the San Jose Sharks, Bryan Little of the Atlanta Thrashers, among others, enjoy breakout years.

When I project which players I think will have breakout seasons, I base it on four things:

The first thing I look at is the player's overall potential. This is the most important attribute to look at because if players have little to no potential of being a solid player, you're just shooting in the dark if you are predicting a breakout season for them.

The second thing I look at is how well a player finished off his last season. I've noticed through the years that when younger players finish the season strong, this indicates bigger and better things for them next season.

The third thing I look at is how well a player played in the playoffs (if they had the opportunity). Players proving they can step up in the playoffs early in their career gives them confidence and a huge kick to their career.

The fourth and final thing I look at is the player's opportunity. Will this player I'm evaluating be playing a big enough role to warrant his breakout year?

In my opinion, those are all really important things you have to look at when evaluating a breakout season for young players.

My early evaluation consists of 10 forwards I believe could be on the verge of breakout seasons in 2009-2010.

C - Sam Gagner (Edmonton Oilers)

Sam Gagner was one of the surprise rookies who put up good numbers in his rookie season two years ago (49 points).

Many thought Sam was ready for a breakout year in his following campaign this past season.

That didn't quite happen.

Sam got off to a very slow start in his second season, so much so that he found himself relegated from a top six role.

Through the first three quarters of Sam's second season he didn't contribute much, but once that final quarter hit, Sam found his stride, putting up a total of 21 points in his final 20 games.

This strong finish should catapult Sam to a much better start and campaign next season, hopefully his breakout year.

2008-2009 stats: GP 76, Goals 16, Assists 25, Points 41

2009-2010 breakout potential: 60 points

Key to his breakout season: Oilers must be a competitive team.

C - Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning)

Steven Stamkos was drafted first overall in the 2008 NHL draft.

When you're a number one pick, high expectations come with it, and Steven failed to silence his critics for the better part of his rookie year.

I personally believe it was the horrible team and distractions Steve had to deal with that hampered his full potential.

Once the Lightning were well out of the playoff hunt, the pressure and expectations seemed to go away, and Steve finished his rookie season on a high note, putting up 20 points in his final 20 games.

With the experience Steven earned in his turbulent rookie season, he should now know how to play through it if it happens again, so expect his numbers to rise.

2008-2009 stats: GP 79, Goals 23, Assists 23, Points 46

2009-2010 breakout potential: 30 or more goals and around 70 points

Key to his breakout season: Ignoring any distractions. Taking control of plays.

C - Valtteri Filppula (Detroit Red Wings)

Valtteri Filppula looks like he may be another unknown Red Wings stud that came out of nowhere.

On the big stage of these 2009 playoffs, Valtteri has stepped his game up tremendously, notching 16 points in 22 games, with one game still to play.

In my opinion he's the Red Wings' unsung hero, not only in the playoffs, but all season long.

Valtteri may finally see a top six role for most of next season, leading to more minutes and playing with better players; the formula for stat inflation.

2008-2009 stats: GP 80, Goals 12, Assists 28, Points 40

2009-2010 breakout potential: 60 points

Key to his breakout season: Playing in a top six role.

C - Michael Frolik (Florida Panthers)

Michael Frolik has been the Panthers' top prospect for a few seasons now.

Last season was Michael's chance to finally show the Panthers organization he was ready for the big club, and he did not disappoint.

Michael put up 21 goals and a total of 45 points in 79 games played in his rookie season.

His play through the first half of the season earned him a spot on the rookie's squad at the Young-Stars game on All-Star weekend.

Michael finished off the season with nine points in his last nine games.

2008-2009 stats: GP 79, Goals 21, Assists 24, Points 45

2009-2010 breakout potential: 25 to 30 goals, 60 points

Key to his breakout season: More ice time. Bigger role.

C - Brandon Dubinsky (New York Rangers)

Brandon Dubinsky was a bit of a mystery last season.

Coming off an unexpected rookie season with 40 points, Brandon started his sophomore season with 11 points in his first 13 games. It looked liked Brandon was on his way to a breakout season.

However, In Brandon's next 52 games, he only tallied a total of 19 points, and eventually finished the season with a disappointing 41 points in 82 games played, only one point better than his previous season.

The silver lining to it all is Brandon finished the season well and played solidly in the seven games of the playoffs, all under new head coach John Tortorella.

Assuming the Rangers sign Brandon, I see good things happening for him next season.

2008-2009 stats: GP 82, Goals 13, Assists 28, Points 41

2009-2010 potential breakout: 60 points

Key to his breakout season: Maintaining a good work ethic under his new coach.

RW - Scottie Upshall (Phoenix Coyotes)

Originally a sixth overall pick in the 2002 NHL draft, Scottie Upshall has been an underachiever thus far in his seven seasons in the NHL.

Scottie was traded from Philadelphia to Phoenix right around the trade deadline last season, making this is his third club of his career.

When Scottie arrived in Phoenix, he made an immediate impact, finishing the season with eight goals and 13 points in his final 19 games of the season with the Coyotes.

Assuming the Coyotes resign Scottie, he could start off the season in a top six role for the them, and expect him to make most of the opportunity if he does.

2008-2009 stats: GP 74, Goals 15, Assists 19, Points 34

2009-2010 breakout potential: 25 to 30 goals, 50 or more points

Key to his breakout season: Playing with good playmakers.

RW - Claude Giroux (Philadelphia Flyers)

When Claude Giroux was bought up from the AHL's Philadelphia Phantoms to play for the Flyers, there was no doubt he was NHL ready.

On most nights when Claude was in a Flyers uniform, he looked like one of the best players on the ice.

Claude has amazing vision in which we all witnessed in the playoffs when he set up a Simon Gagne goal with a pass that would make Peter Forsberg's eyes light up.

Claude was consistently one of the best players for the Flyers in the playoffs as well (five points in six games), and one of the big reasons the series did not turn out to be a sweep for the Penguins.

With half a season under his belt and a strong playoff performance, this youngster may have all that is needed to breakout next season.

2008-2009 stats: GP 42, Goals 9, Assists 18, Points 27

2009-2010 potential breakout: 60 points

Key to his breakout season: Bulking up and getting stronger in the offseason.

RW - Kyle Okposo (New York Islanders)

Kyle Okposo proved last year he is ready for the big leagues, scoring 18 goals in only 65 games on the worst offensive team in the NHL.

Assuming the Islanders draft John Tavares, it could potentially be a top line of Tavares, Doug Weight, and Kyle Okposo. Either way, Okposo should play on the top line for Islanders, and at the very least in a top six role depending on how the FA market goes for them.

Kyle finished the season with 16 points in his final 14 NHL games.

Kyle also played in the World Hockey Championships, tallying five points in nine games played.

Everything about Kyle's speedy maturation, his role with the Islanders, and his opportunity, spells early breakout in my opinion.

2008-2009 stats: GP 65, Goals 18, Assists 21, Points 39

2009-2010 breakout potential: 30 goals, 50 or more points

Key to his breakout: Staying healthy

RW - T.J Oshie (St. Louis Blues)

T.J. Oshie could have made a run at the Calder Trophy last season if he played a full season.

His numbers last season projected out over the course of a full 82 game season were around 60 points.

TJ finished the season with 14 points in his last 15 games, and don't forget the playoff experience he gained as well.

Considering he is also of of the big pieces to major rebuilding in St. Louis, this seems like an easy pick to me.

2008-2009 stats: GP 57, Goals 14, Assists 25, Points 39

2009-2010 breakout potential: 60 points

Key to his breakout season: St. Louis needs to be a competitive team again.

LW - Rene Bourque (Calgary Flames)

Rene Bourque got off to a great start in his first year as a Calgary Flame.

Through Rene's first 58 games, before suffering a season ending injury, he tallied 21 goals and 40 points.

Rene returned from his injury in time for the playoffs which is huge because if not, he would have last seen NHL action in February, which would be nearly eight months before the start of his 2009-2010 NHL season.

Before going down with the injury, Rene had nine points in his last 10 games in the regular season. He also played in all five playoff games and scored one goal.

2008-2009 stats: GP 58, Goals 21, Assists 19, Points 40

2009-2010 breakout potential: 30 goals, 50 points

Key to his breakout season: Adapting to the new head coach's system