Every year thousands of fantasy football players will buy a draft guide.
Sometimes two or three.
Put down the magazine and leave your drafting to chance.
You have to get lucky with the player you draft.
That is why I believe that fantasy football, just like in Vegas, is about luck.
Case in point, last year I drafted Carson Palmer (who is usually a top five QB) and Derek Anderson (10th round). I was fairly confident in those two players as I had a good supporting cast around them.
Palmer gets injured and Anderson loses his job.
I was SOL and had to trade Chris Johnson (my sleeper pick of the draft) and a draft pick in 2009 for Romo, who got injured the week after I traded for him.
Having two decent QBs will work if you get lucky with who you draft. The guy that had Romo also had Rodgers.
He got lucky...me on the other hand...not so lucky.
Last year Cutler, Rivers, and Rodgers owners got a bargain in the draft and probably went deep into the playoffs.
What most people don't realize is that fantasy football is a game of luck.
I have been playing fantasy football with the same 10 guys since 1995.
In my 10 team league, one player is kept from the previous season.
So, the top players are usually "protected."
In actuality, our first round would be round two in redraft leagues.
Every year four to seven of the players taken in the first rounds fail to live up to expectations.
Last year first round picks Braylon Edwards, Ryan Grant, Frank Gore, and Reggie Wayne all fell below their projected expectations.
You will see it this year as mock draft after mock draft has the same 10-12 players taken in the first round.
If you listen to the mock drafts you may be kicking yourself during the season for taking the next Braylon Edwards when you could've had Drew Brees in round one.
Granted they're different positions, but Brees gets the ball on every play. Edwards or any WR will be lucky to see the ball 10 times a game.
Your chance of striking it rich in the game of fantasy football will increase if you pay attention to preseason games and team trends as well as do a little research.
Don't be afraid to grab a top three QB early and get lucky with a few gems in the later rounds.
Take every "prediction" with a grain of salt, because remember...even a gofer can predict the weather in February.