For a full explanation of the data that was used for these rankings, see “Behind the Rankings” at the end of these lists.

 

Because change in winning percentage, as well as experience as a head coach, counts in these ratings, many times, new coaches will “sink to the bottom” as there is no data to use for evaluation purposes.

 

 


Conference USA

 

Only three of the league’s twelve coaches have been on the job more than five years.  This includes wily veterans Mike Price of UTEP and George O’Leary of UCF.  There are no new coaches in the league this season.

 

There are, however, a small handful of coaches that are looking for one or two more big seasons before they will likely move to more lucrative and prestigious positions.

 

 

 

1.  Mike Price, UTEP

 

The past couple of seasons have not gone exactly as coach Price would like, but he has still proven himself a winner at every stop.  In two of the past three seasons, his teams were one win away from bowl eligibility.

 

Price won eight games in each of his first two seasons in El Paso, and his Washington State teams were nationally regarded (three times finishing in the Top 10 nationally).

 

 

 

2.  George O’Leary, UCF

 

O’Leary’s squads at UCF have been hard to figure.  His first team was winless, but he has won the Eastern division in every odd year (2005, 2007).  The 2007 squad was also the conference champion.

 

O’Leary was also successful at Georgia Tech. He was named head coach of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, but we all know how that worked out.

 

To stay near the top of this list, O’Leary needs to show more consistency with the Knights.

 

 

 

3.  Skip Holtz, East Carolina

 

Holtz’ Pirates have increased their win total in each of his four seasons, and there have been three straight bowl berths.  Last season’s team was the talk of the country before fading out of the polls and settling for a conference championship.

 

Given the last name and his track record, the guess is that if the 2009 Pirates are successful, they will be in the market for a new coach in 2010.

 

 

 

4.  Todd Graham, Tulsa

 

His first job as a coach was at Rice, and all he did was lead the Owls to their first bowl berth since 1961.  Since moving on to Tulsa, he has won the West division in both season and has a combined 21 victories. 

 

This season will be interesting to see how the Hurricane offense functions after losing Malzahn as coordinator. 

 

 

 

5.  June Jones, SMU

 

Yes, this ranking is primarily based on his accomplishments at Hawaii, capped off with the BCS berth in 2007.  Jones, however, has a commitment from the SMU administration, and he will begin putting his offense in place. 

 

It’s unlikely that SMU will compete in 2009, but do not forget the jump that Hawaii made from winless to 9-4.

 

 

 

6.  Tommy West, Memphis

 

West was booted out of Clemson following a disastrous 1998 season.  He has produced five bowl teams in the past six years.  If not for a slew of injuries in 2006, he might be working on six straight bowl appearances. 

 

To put this into perspective, prior to West, Memphis had five winning seasons (none better than 6-4-1) from 1978-2000.  Further, West led Memphis to their first 9-win season since 1963.

 

 

 

7.  Kevin Sumlin, Houston

 

In only one season, Sumlin stamped the program as his and was able to follow the success of Art Briles.  This ranking, especially given the process, seems high for a coach with only one year of experience. 

 

The thinking is, however, that Sumlin has “it” and will be calling the shots in BCS land within a few seasons.

 

 

 

8.  Bob Toledo, Tulane

 

Toledo has had an interesting coaching career.  He was the head coach at Pacific in 1982 and did not have another head coaching position until taking over at UCLA in 1996. 

 

His ’97 and ’98 teams finished in the top 10, but the remaining years were characterized by mediocrity. 

 

He has won six games in two seasons at Tulane, and without improvement this year, coach Toledo will continue to slide down the list of Conference USA coaches.

 

 

 

9.  David Bailiff, Rice

 

Rice had one of the biggest turnarounds in the country last season, going from 3-9 to 10-3 in Bailiff’s second season. 

 

For 2009, they lose most of the skill players from that dynamic offense, and so this is a real opportunity for Bailiff to “coach up” the replacements and earn a higher ranking.

 

 

 

10.  Larry Fedora, Southern Miss

 

His offense was exciting and the exact change of pace that the administration was looking for when they allowed long-time coach Jeff Bower to “retire.”  Fedora went 7-6 in his first season, equaling the victory total of four of Bower’s previous six seasons.

 

Fedora is one of the hot young coaches whose offense creates mismatches and is successful.  The key this season for him will be to enhance the defense and continue to build momentum toward a title run in Conference USA.

 

 

 

11.  Mark Snyder, Marshall

 

Maybe this is not fair, but Snyder nears the bottom of the list partially due to Marshall previous successes.  Clearly, this team does not have a Moss, Kresser, or Pennington, and so Snyder is struggling.

 

In his four seasons, his team has never finished higher than third in the Eastern division.  There is some heat on Snyder, and he needs to win this season.

 

 

 

12.  Neil Callaway, UAB

 

Again, this is partially due to inexperience and inheriting a bad football team.  Nonetheless, Callaway’s hiring was not without pause at UAB, because he had little experience. 

 

He has won six games in two seasons at UAB.  Offensive coordinator Kim Helton has the experience to help build this team, but there need to be signs of improvement this season.

 

 

 

The WAC

 

Two new coaches, DeWayne Walker (New Mexico State) and Gary Andersen (Utah State) join veterans Pat Hill and Chris Ault.  Rising star Chris Petersen will also be at Boise State to welcome the newcomers, along with savvy veteran Dick Tomey at San Jose State. 

 

The WAC has assembled a nice mix of youth and experience and the league continues to upgrade its image. 

 

 

1.  Chris Ault, Nevada

 

The inventor of the “Pistol” offense continues to lead the WAC coaching list, at least for this season.  Ault has become synonymous with Wolf Pack football, as he has led the team for 24 seasons since 1976. 

 

He has won 198 football games, and, since 2004, he has a string of four consecutive bowl berths.

 

 

 

2.  Chris Petersen, Boise State

 

Since taking over the reigns from Dan Hawkins in 2006, all Petersen has done is achieve a record of 35-4, highlighted by the stunning Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma, a game in which he outmaneuvered Bob Stoops.

 

Petersen also has two of the past three league titles, finishing second in 2008 (his only WAC loss as a head coach). 

 

Not surprisingly, Boise State is favored to win the conference yet again.

 

 

 

3.  Dick Tomey, San Jose State

 

Tomey is a wily veteran, and, before SJSU, he was the architect of Desert Swarm—the Arizona Wildcat defense of the 1990s. 

 

Tomey has been a head coach since 1977.

 

As head of the Spartans, Tomey went bowling in 2006 and finished at .500 last season.  In his four seasons, the SJSU winning percentage is .479, up from .356 the five seasons prior to his arrival.

 

 

 

4.  Pat Hill, Fresno State

 

Hill’s personality and tenaciousness should place him higher on this list, but the facts do not show that Fresno State’s head man is a top flight coach. 

 

Consider that in the past four seasons, the Bulldogs are just 28-23.  Since taking over in 1997, there has been one conference title (a tie in 1999).

 

His teams always seem to scare one of the “big boys” and then lose 2-3 games in which they are clear favorites.  The 2004 team is the only one that has finished ranked in the final top 25, coming in at No. 22.

 

 

 

5.  Derek Dooley, Louisiana Tech

 

Son of the legendary Vince Dooley, the Bulldogs' head man led his team to an 8-5 record in 2008.  There is the feeling that the team is continuing to improve and should contend for a place in the upper-echelon of the WAC.

 

Dooley, with more seasoning, might be primed for a bigger situation in the future.

 

 

 

6.  Greg McMackin, Hawaii

 

In the first year after Brennan and Jones, McMackin rallied his team to a 7-7 record after opening the season at 1-3.  For whatever reason, Hawaii was willing to give McMackin a contract worth $300,000 more per season than previous coach June Jones.

 

The next few years will determine if he earned that.

 

 

 

7.  Robb Akey, Idaho

 

Idaho is a tough situation for any coach.  This area of the country is not known as a recruiting “hotbed,” and after Boise, Utah, and BYU have their say, there are not many recruits left.  Akey’s teams have a combined 3-21 record. 

 

 

 

T8.  DeWayne Walker, New Mexico State

 

Walker has the experience and has, for the last several years, been regarded as one of the best coordinators in the game.

 

There is no head coaching experience, however, and he accepted a position at one of the worst FBS programs in the nation.

 

 

 

T8.  Gary Andersen, Utah State

 

The Utah State situation is so bad that they hired an individual with one season of head coaching experience on the FCS level.  He was 4-7 in 2003 with Southern Utah.  This does not bode well for the most moribund program in FBS. 

 

 

 

Behind the Rankings

 

These rankings are not simply my arbitrary opinion but rather a combination of objective and subjective elements to determine the value of each coach in the country.  Ratings were calculated using the following:

 

 

 

Head Coaching Experience (up to 4 points)

 

Years of previous head coach experience.

 

 

 

Previous Titles (up to 2 points)

 

One point for national titles (.5 if won with different school) and one point for conference championships (.5 if won with different school).

 

 

 

Performance over time (up to 3 points)

 

For coaches with less than five years at a school, the coach’s winning percentage at the school is compared versus previous five seasons winning percentage.  For coaches with more than five years at a school, the overall winning percentage is compared to percentage over the last three seasons.

 

 

 

Coaching Skills (up to 12 points)

 

This is much more subjective.  How well does a coach recruit, motivate, and develop his players.  At what level is he able to game plan, make adjustments, etc?