(Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
For a full explanation of the data that was used for these rankings, see “Behind the Rankings” at the end of these lists.
Because change in winning percentage, as well as experience as a head coach, counts in these ratings, many times, new coaches will “sink to the bottom” as there is no data to use for evaluation purposes.
Conference USA
Only three of the league’s twelve coaches have been on the job more than five years. This includes wily veterans Mike Price of UTEP and George O’Leary of UCF. There are no new coaches in the league this season.
There are, however, a small handful of coaches that are looking for one or two more big seasons before they will likely move to more lucrative and prestigious positions.
1. Mike Price, UTEP
The past couple of seasons have not gone exactly as coach Price would like, but he has still proven himself a winner at every stop. In two of the past three seasons, his teams were one win away from bowl eligibility.
Price won eight games in each of his first two seasons in El Paso, and his Washington State teams were nationally regarded (three times finishing in the Top 10 nationally).
2. George O’Leary, UCF
O’Leary’s squads at UCF have been hard to figure. His first team was winless, but he has won the Eastern division in every odd year (2005, 2007). The 2007 squad was also the conference champion.
O’Leary was also successful at Georgia Tech. He was named head coach of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, but we all know how that worked out.
To stay near the top of this list, O’Leary needs to show more consistency with the Knights.
3. Skip Holtz, East Carolina
Holtz’ Pirates have increased their win total in each of his four seasons, and there have been three straight bowl berths. Last season’s team was the talk of the country before fading out of the polls and settling for a conference championship.
Given the last name and his track record, the guess is that if the 2009 Pirates are successful, they will be in the market for a new coach in 2010.
4. Todd Graham, Tulsa
His first job as a coach was at Rice, and all he did was lead the Owls to their first bowl berth since 1961. Since moving on to Tulsa, he has won the West division in both season and has a combined 21 victories.
This season will be interesting to see how the Hurricane offense functions after losing Malzahn as coordinator.
5. June Jones, SMU
Yes, this ranking is primarily based on his accomplishments at Hawaii, capped off with the BCS berth in 2007. Jones, however, has a commitment from the SMU administration, and he will begin putting his offense in place.
It’s unlikely that SMU will compete in 2009, but do not forget the jump that Hawaii made from winless to 9-4.
6. Tommy West, Memphis
West was booted out of Clemson following a disastrous 1998 season. He has produced five bowl teams in the past six years. If not for a slew of injuries in 2006, he might be working on six straight bowl appearances.
To put this into perspective, prior to West, Memphis had five winning seasons (none better than 6-4-1) from 1978-2000. Further, West led Memphis to their first 9-win season since 1963.
7. Kevin Sumlin, Houston
In only one season, Sumlin stamped the program as his and was able to follow the success of Art Briles. This ranking, especially given the process, seems high for a coach with only one year of experience.
The thinking is, however, that Sumlin has “it” and will be calling the shots in BCS land within a few seasons.
8. Bob Toledo, Tulane
Toledo has had an interesting coaching career. He was the head coach at Pacific in 1982 and did not have another head coaching position until taking over at UCLA in 1996.
His ’97 and ’98 teams finished in the top 10, but the remaining years were characterized by mediocrity.
He has won six games in two seasons at Tulane, and without improvement this year, coach Toledo will continue to slide down the list of Conference USA coaches.
9. David Bailiff, Rice
Rice had one of the biggest turnarounds in the country last season, going from 3-9 to 10-3 in Bailiff’s second season.
For 2009, they lose most of the skill players from that dynamic offense, and so this is a real opportunity for Bailiff to “coach up” the replacements and earn a higher ranking.
10. Larry Fedora, Southern Miss
His offense was exciting and the exact change of pace that the administration was looking for when they allowed long-time coach Jeff Bower to “retire.” Fedora went 7-6 in his first season, equaling the victory total of four of Bower’s previous six seasons.
Fedora is one of the hot young coaches whose offense creates mismatches and is successful. The key this season for him will be to enhance the defense and continue to build momentum toward a title run in Conference USA.
11. Mark Snyder, Marshall
Maybe this is not fair, but Snyder nears the bottom of the list partially due to Marshall previous successes. Clearly, this team does not have a Moss, Kresser, or Pennington, and so Snyder is struggling.
In his four seasons, his team has never finished higher than third in the Eastern division. There is some heat on Snyder, and he needs to win this season.
12. Neil Callaway, UAB
Again, this is partially due to inexperience and inheriting a bad football team. Nonetheless, Callaway’s hiring was not without pause at UAB, because he had little experience.
He has won six games in two seasons at UAB. Offensive coordinator Kim Helton has the experience to help build this team, but there need to be signs of improvement this season.
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