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Fantasy Baseball 2014: 10 MLB Players Most Likely to Regress This Season

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Fantasy Baseball 2014: 10 MLB Players Most Likely to Regress This Season
Steven Senne/Associated Press
After a smashing 2013, Mike Napoli could see a decline in his stats—and his beard—in 2014.

The Super Bowl just ended. Have you started your fantasy baseball preparation yet?

If your answer is no, don't worry: There's help on the way, starting with a look at a batch of players who are coming off fantastic fantasy seasons in 2013. That's all well and good, except it's 2014 now, which means they're prime candidates to disappoint this time around.

Yes, regression is a depressing element of fantasy baseball, but player performance fluctuates—and in this case, for the worse—from year to year all the time. A drop-off can happen for any number of reasons, including age, injury, new team, suspicious underlying metrics or even the simple fact that there's no way in heck to sustain last season's overwhelming level of production.

That in mind, the players to follow are those considered worthy fantasy starters who appear to be due for a dip. Though they fit the regression bill, hitters like Marlon Byrd and Chris Johnson or pitchers like A.J. Griffin and Jhoulys Chacin don't quite qualify based on their current perception as nonstarting pieces for standard fantasy purposes (i.e. a 10- or 12-team league with 5x5 scoring).

Before clicking ahead, though, don't mistake this list to mean these players aren't worth drafting or starting for your fake squad. Most of them will be—they just won't approach their output from 2013.

Here, then, are 10 regression candidates (and then some), listed in reverse order of their average draft position (ADP) based on early results via Mock Draft Central (membership required).

 

Statistics from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs were used in this piece.

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