Comparing Tottenham to Recent Fourth-Place Finishers

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Comparing Tottenham to Recent Fourth-Place Finishers
Matt Dunham/Associated Press
Wednesday's beating at the hands of City may have been the final nail in the coffin for Spurs.

There really is no true way to quantify the constant mess that is the Barclays Premier League.

In a league where anything goes, there’s no true way to ever predict what’s going to happen. On any day, the biggest of fish could drop points to the tiniest of minnows.

However, when attempting to calculate expectations for Tottenham from here on out, one needs to analyze from both heart and head.

When it comes to going with your gut, it is hard to imagine Tottenham pushing towards a top-four place. Liverpool currently holds a three-point (essentially four with goal differential) lead over Spurs, while Everton and Manchester United are also swarming.

However, it is also necessary to break things down numerically. For that, let’s take a look at fourth-place finishers over the past 10 seasons and how they were faring at this point of the season:

Fourth Place Finishers in the Premier League
Year Team Points Through 23 Matches Final Points
13-14 Tottenham 43 71(Projected)
12-13 Arsenal 37 73
11-12 Tottenham 49 69
10-11 Arsenal 49 68
09-10 Tottenham 43 70
08-09 Arsenal 43 72
07-08 Liverpool 40 76
06-07 Arsenal 45 68
05-06 Arsenal 40 67
04-05 Everton 44 61
03-04 Liverpool 35 60

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/league-table.html

As you can see by the comparison, if Spurs keep pace they would finish with just enough to qualify.

However, this year’s Premier League race is a different animal, as parity has been the name of the game. There are more points spread throughout the top of the table, as no clear No. 1 has run away with the race. Let’s take a look at City and how they compare with previous title winners:

Premier League Title Winners
Year Team Final Points
13-14 Manchester City 87.6 (Projected)
12-13 Manchester United 89
11-12 Manchester CIty 89
10-11 Manchester United 80
09-10 Chelsea 86
08-09 Manchester United 90
07-08 Manchester United 87
06-07 Manchester United 89
05-06 Chelsea 91
04-05 Chelsea 95
03-04 Arsenal 90

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/league-table.html

Having done this, you can see City are projected to finish with a lower point total than all but three of the previous winners, meaning more points are being gobbled by teams other than the title winners.

City compare most favorably with their crosstown rivals of 2007-08, as the Citizens are projected to finish with roughly the same amount of points as Cristiano Ronaldo’s Manchester United.

Coincidentally, Liverpool was able to snatch up fourth that campaign with 76, five more than the Spurs' projections.

With that being said, Spurs face an uphill battle in their fight for Champions League qualification. Recent drubbings at the hands of City and Liverpool do little to inspire morale, as the team will have to regroup in an effort to push forward.

There’s still plenty of time for Spurs to improve, but as of now, Champions League places may just be slightly out of reach.

 

Will Tottenham make the top four? Tweet your responses to @R_Tolmich or comment below!

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