Who Will Be The Next Pitcher To Get 300 Wins?

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Some people can't even get to the Hall of Fame because of 300 wins sometimes. It is impossible to get it this decade with five-man rotations. Looking at relievers, those guys were meant to not have 300 wins for the other pitchers in front of them.

According to Baseball Prospectus, starting pitchers averaged to play 5.8 innings per game. Now, can you understand that?

Here is a little exerpt from the Baseball Prospectus article that you might be interested in:

"Regardless, the attachment to the number 300 for a baseball fan lingers. The Baseball Writers' Association of America hasn't elected a starting pitcher to the Hall of Fame since 1999 (Nolan Ryan) and hasn't elected a starter with fewer than 300 wins since 1990 (Fergie Jenkins). With the disappearance of the 300-clubbers on the ballot, the writers have barred the door for the eminently worthy Bert Blyleven, almost solely because he missed the mark by 13 wins, and they never came close to inducting Tommy John (288 wins) or Jim Kaat (283), pitchers with shakier credentials. Although Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine have reached 300 wins this decade, the Rocket's steroid-related controversy suggests that it will take until 2014, when Maddux is eligible, for another starter to earn election to the Hall."

—Baseball Prospectus

Did you read that? It is just surprising, isn't it?

BP sees that in seven years, there will be eighty one wins for both C.C. Sabathia and Johan Santana from 2009-2015. So with that, BP says that when Santana is thirty six years old, he'll have 190 wins, while the 34-year-old Sabathia will have 198 wins in 2015. I like how BP works on this.

So right now, Sabathia looks to have the best chance at 300 wins if he keeps it up. Here is what I found with my research. If Sabathia has 198 wins at age thirty four years old in 2015, he would have to average fifteen wins for the next seven years. So at age forty one, he would have 303 wins.

For Santana, if he averaged fourteen wins for the next eight years at age thirty six in 2015, he would have 302 wins at age forty four.

If Santana had 190 wins at age thirty six, he would have to average 14 wins for the next eight years for 300 wins.

See how things work? It is possible to get 300 wins with Santana and Sabathia. But it will be tough. Can Sabathia average 15 wins for seven straight years? Or can Santana average 14 wins for the next eight years? It is tough and it might not even happen.

Here are the stats from BP: Sabathia has 17 percent chance of getting 300 wins, Roy Halladay has a six percent chance of getting 300 wins.

Then there is Carlos Zambrano, who has a five percent chance of 300 wins. But Zambrano won't get it. He will probably get 200 because according to the recent Matt Miselis article from BleacherReport.com, Zambrano said he will retire in the next five years.

Johan Santana has a five percent chance, Roy Oswalt has one, and Jake Peavy and Josh Beckett at zero.

Brandon Webb also has a five percent chance as well, but with 87 wins at age 30, it'll be an impossible feat to make.

C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, and Roy Halladay have the best chances so far to reach 300 wins.

So far, the guys with the best chances at 300 is C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, and Roy Halladay. It'll be a tough thing to follow. It'll take a while for these guys to get it, but in the future, these guys may have a chance.

Information from Baseball Prospectus was used in this article.

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