Ballon D'Or 2013 Winner: Analysing Odds of Cristiano Ronaldo Repeating in 2014

Joseph ZuckerFeatured ColumnistJanuary 13, 2014

VALENCIA, SPAIN - DECEMBER 22:  Cristiano Ronaldo of Real Madrid celebrates after scoring during the La Liga match between Valencia CF and Real Madrid CF at Estadio Mestalla on December 22, 2013 in Valencia, Spain.  (Photo by Manuel Queimadelos Alonso/Getty Images)
Manuel Queimadelos Alonso/Getty Images

Now that Cristiano Ronaldo has reached the mountaintop again, how long can he stay there?

As expected, Ronaldo took home the 2013 FIFA Ballon d'Or on Monday night.

It's the second time he's won the award, with the first time coming back in 2008 as a member of Manchester United's Champions League-winning side.

In what was a very emotional acceptance speech, Ronaldo had this to say, per the Guardian:

First of all I have to say a great thanks to all of my team-mates with the club and the national team. Without all of their efforts this would not have been possible. I am very happy, it is very difficult to win this award.

Everybody that has been involved with me on a personal level I have to thank. My wife, my friends, my son. It is a tremendously emotional moment. All I can say is thank you to everybody that has been involved.

While Franck Ribery boasted the trophies and Lionel Messi had the reputation, the 28-year-old winger was named the best individual player on the planet. ESPN's Paul Carr has a look at Ronaldo's Ballon d'Or resume:

Given the status and success of the club, you'd think that Real Madrid would boast an array of Ballon d'Or winners. However, OptaJose pointed out that Ronaldo is now only the third player who's won the award after spending the whole of the calendar year in the Spanish capital.

The Portuguese captain should bask in his glory now because it could be fleeting. Repeating a Ballon d'Or win seems extremely unlikely.

One of the problems when it comes to attempting a repeat is that you almost certainly have to find a way to top what you've done in the previous year. Voter fatigue sets in, so you need to impress them all over again.

That's a concern for Ronaldo because it's almost impossible for him to repeat that goalscoring record again. He's getting to the point where age is becoming a factor. While slight, a decline should start to set in.

You'd expect that Gareth Bale's importance on the team will grow the longer he's in Spain. That means he'll take a little more of the spotlight away from Ronaldo and make more runs at goal with each game.

MADRID, SPAIN - NOVEMBER 09:  Cristiano Ronaldo of Real Madrid CF celebrates scoring their opening goal with teammate Gareth Bale during the La Liga match between Real Madrid CF and Real Sociedad de Futbol  at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu on November 9, 2013
Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno/Getty Images

Alvaro Morata is also a wild card. The 21-year-old hasn't figured much in the 2013/14 campaign, but he's no doubt a promising talent. By the time the 2014/15 season starts, Morata could be Madrid's primary No. 9 and if that's the case, you'd back him to find the back of the net often, thus taking some of the goalscoring burden off Ronaldo.

Winning a La Liga and/or Champions League title would boost Ronaldo's bid to repeat, but Barcelona remains in the driver's seat league-wise, and Los Blancos continue falling short of "La Decima," so you can't say with any confidence that they're favorites to win this year.

While club form and performance is a factor, so much of Ronaldo's candidacy hinges on winning or at least going deep at the 2014 World Cup.

The competition can do wonders for a player when it comes to the end-of-year awards. That's how somebody such as Fabio Cannavaro ends up winning the 2006 FIFA Player of the Year and Oliver Kahn is runner-up in 2002.

Look at how much the World Cup playoff against Sweden helped Ronaldo. He registered a hat-trick in the second leg and scored all of Portugal's goals in what was a 4-2 aggregate win. From that point on, he was the Ballon d'Or favorite.

STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN - NOVEMBER 19:  Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal celebrates after scoring their 3rd goal during the FIFA 2014 World Cup Qualifier Play-off Second Leg match between Sweden and Portugal at Friends Arena on November 19, 2013 in Stockholm, Swed
Martin Rose/Getty Images

The better Portugal do, the more Ronaldo is helped. Unfortunately, history is against both of them.

Plenty of other countries are better positioned to do well in Brazil, and they all have worthy candidates to win the player of the year award.

If Brazil win the World Cup at home, Neymar is a virtual lock to win the 2014 Ballon d'Or. The same could be said of Lionel Messi, Andres Iniesta, Xavi, Philipp Lahm, Andrea Pirlo and Mesut Ozil in the event their respective teams win.

Ronaldo would end up out in the cold, as runner-up or third-place finisher.

The final verdict is that the Real Madrid star will undoubtedly hang around in the discussion as the best player in the world, but an underwhelming World Cup showing would sink his Ballon d'Or campaign. Given Portugal's struggles in qualifying, a strong finish is all but assured on that front.

As great as Ronaldo is, reigning supreme again in 2014 looks a bridge too far.