NFL Patterns: Data Indicates Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez Will Be Busts

(Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images)

Let's say you are the CEO of a multi-million dollar company. 

You can't do everything, so you need a go-to guy—a quarterback if you will.

A person to carry out the plays that you draw up on the board and lead when you can't be around. You would probably focus on the most qualified candidates for the job—paying special attention to track record, quality of education, references, grades, test scores, etc. 

The Detroit Lions and the New York Jets were looking for a new go-to guy, a new quarterback.

If you look at Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, both of these guys decided, "Hey, forget college, I'm ready to lead right now!"

Well, I'm going to show you two lists: Group A and Group B.

Group A:

1. Heath Shuler

2. Ryan Leaf

3. Andre Ware

4. Tim Couch

5. Michael Vick

Group B:

1. Tom Brady

2. Peyton Manning

3. John Elway

4. Donavon McNabb

5. Matt Ryan

6. Joe Montana

7. Brett Favre

At first blush, Group A looks like a list of the greatest quarterback busts in the history of the NFL. They obviously have degrees of NFL failure in common. 

Group B on the other hand looks like a list of past and future Hall-of-Famers. Group B seems to have that magical "it" factor that pushed them to success.

I'm here to tell you, one variable separates these two lists of guys. Did the guy drop out of college (or in Sanchez's case, leave with another year of eligibility) to play in the NFL?

All of the Group B quarterbacks graduated from college, and entered the draft after completing a senior season. 

It is that simple.

Ryan Leaf—college dropout.

Peyton Manning—college graduate.

Malcolm Gladwell points out that highly successful people are often outliers—extremely rare cases. He explains that Bill Gates is an outlier, because he was one of the only 13-year-old kids on the planet to be exposed to a computer in the late 1960s. 

Tom Brady is arguably the Bill Gates of quarterbacks, and unlike Bill Gates, Tom Brady graduated from college. He wasn't everything coming out of college, and his father wasn't an NFL legend. However, he played football for a good university, and graduated.

Stafford and Sanchez are leaving valuable college eligibility and learning time on the table. You would let a college drop out mow your lawn, but you wouldn't let him be the field general of your company. Stafford is a dropout, and Sanchez is leaving another year of eligibility on the table. Pete Carroll was clearly upset when Sanchez decided to leave college early, and the reasons behind his anger might not be completely selfish.

In addition to leaving early, Stafford and Sanchez are essentially adolescents. At 19-22 years old, how mature were you? Layer the money, playbook complexities, pressure from the media on top of these young shoulders and you have a recipe for disaster.

Obviously many different variables come into play and should be considered, but putting in the time in college seems to be an important factor in determining the future success of NFL quarterbacks. It looks to me like Stafford and Sanchez will be the latest high profile early entry quarterbacks to hit the NFL, and if history is any type of guide, they are likely to bust.

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