Dallas Cowboys 2014 Mock Draft: Round-by-Round Best Case Scenarios

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Dallas Cowboys 2014 Mock Draft: Round-by-Round Best Case Scenarios
Tom Pennington/Getty Images

The Dallas Cowboys didn't have a quality 2013 draft. It might seem premature to make that claim, but the value of decisions should be determined using the evidence that was available at the time of the choice, not afterward. The latter sort of ex post facto determination assumes that the value of decisions is dictated by the result.

Logically, we know that's not the case. When head coach Jason Garrett calls a particular play, it has a certain probability of working out. If he chooses a high-probability play that has a 95 percent chance of converting but the Cowboys offense fails to make it work, that doesn't mean Garrett made a poor choice; if he maximized the chances of success, it was a smart call before the play as well as after it, regardless of the outcome.

Similarly, each draft choice comes with a certain probability of succeeding in the NFL. The Cowboys and every team are searching for predictors of future success. If a particular choice doesn't have a fruitful NFL career, it doesn't necessarily mean he was a bad pick. 

Running back Joseph Randle is an example I have and will continue to use. I don't need to see Randle's NFL career to know that he was a poor choice. With backs like Zac Stacy and Andre Ellington still on the board, Dallas opted for a player with a weight/speed combination that few players have ever been able to overcome. Even if Randle somehow breaks out, the pick was subpar since all of the evidence at the time pointed to him possessing a low probability for NFL success.

With that in mind, here is my seven-round Cowboys mock draft that focuses on players with the predictors of success at each position to suggest they're the optimal choices in each respective round.

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