NFL Playoff Scenarios: Examining the Divisional Week's Storylines, Possibilities

Eric Mack@@EricMackFantasyFantasy Football Lead WriterJanuary 6, 2014

Andrew Luck already has an incredible postseason victory and a remarkable play to illustrate his NFL legend.
Andrew Luck already has an incredible postseason victory and a remarkable play to illustrate his NFL legend.Rob Carr/Getty Images

Peyton Manning likely doesn't care who his Denver Broncos will face in the divisional playoffs, but he should breathe a sigh of relief he won't have to face Andrew least not yet.

Can you imagine the indignity for Manning's legacy if the prodigy that replaced him in Indianapolis went up to Denver and eliminated him and his Broncos in the greatest statistical year for a quarterback ever?

The catcalls for Manning being a regular-season stat monger and not a "true winner"—whatever that means—would be unbearable. Those arguments always disgust me as trite and childish.

That is not to say it wouldn't be tremendous theater. Popcorn-worthy stuff.

Manning has already endured enough criticism for having won just one Super Bowl, so let's not get too crazy after Luck finally won his first playoff game in his second try.

Indianapolis Colts defensive back Darius Butler, impressed with Manning's replacement, told the Boston Globe's Christopher L. Gasper:

It seems like half the games since I've been here have been some kind of second-half comeback or fourth-quarter drive or something, so you kind of get that feeling that Andrew Luck never lost a game. Time only ran out. You have faith in that guy and that offense.

The San Diego Chargers' victory over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday robbed us of a Manning showdown against Luck, but maybe only for one week. The Denver Broncos will now play the Chargers instead of the Colts, who will travel to New England to face the Patriots.

So, we won't get Luck vs. Manning, but we do get to see what Luck can pull off against someone by the name of Tom Brady.


The Luck Legend Grows

Luck's Colts stayed alive only with a miraculous 28-point rally that stands as the second-largest comeback victory in NFL playoff history. He has won quickly and impressively, while Manning's rise in Indy was famously more gradual...and painful.

Remember, Jim Mora's famed "Playoffs?!" tirade was near the beginning of the Manning era. Mora's mantra became legend, even as he ripped a young Manning—without naming him by name—for his error-prone ways.

Adam Vinatieri knows about how a quick-rising quarterback phenomenon can take over. Vinatieri was a part of the Brady legacy with the Patriots. Vinatieri is now a bridge to the Luck legacy as a Colts teammate.

Vinatieri told the Globe's Gasper:

[Luck] is a special guy. He's the type of guy that doesn't come around very often. There are a lot of great quarterbacks in the league that can do all the throws and can manage a game, but he has got that competitive edge.

It's just fun to watch him work because you know that when he has got the ball, and we've got some time, amazing things are going to happen. He's got that 'it' factor. It's hard to put your finger on it, but he's got it, for sure.

Luck's offensive fumble recovery for a touchdown Saturday night is likely to go down as a signature play that will illustrate his career. Vinatieri marveled to the Globe's Gasper:

I just told [Luck], I said, 'All your touchdown passes and all that great stuff [Saturday]. That was one of the best plays I've ever seen in my life. That was so awesome. ... It was pretty special.


No. 1 Seed More Curse Than Blessing

Regardless of Manning dodging that potential lose-lose situation against Luck, his Broncos cannot feel too comfortable against the Chargers next Sunday.

We spend most of the regular-season playoff race debating and analyzing how teams can clinch the coveted home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but it hasn't been much help this past decade, especially in the AFC. No AFC No. 1 seed has won the Super Bowl since the New England Patriots in 2003.

"Since the NFL adopted the 12-team playoff format in 1990, only 21 of the 46 (45.7 percent) No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Super Bowl, with nine No. 1 seeds being crowned champions (19.6 percent)," according to the NFL media notes.

NFL's No. 1 Seeds Since 1990
1990BuffaloLost Super Bowl XXVSan FranciscoLost NFC Championship
1991BuffaloLost Super Bowl XXVIWashingtonWon Super Bowl XXVI
1992PittsburghLost DivisionalSan FranciscoLost NFC Championship
1993BuffaloLost Super Bowl XXVIIIDallasWon Super Bowl XXVIII
1994PittsburghLost AFC ChampionshipSan FranciscoWon Super Bowl XXIX
1995Kansas CityLost DivisionalDallasWon Super Bowl XXX
1996DenverLost DivisionalGreen BayWon Super Bowl XXXI
1997Kansas CityLost DivisionalSan FranciscoLost NFC Championship
1998DenverWon Super Bowl XXXIIIMinnesotaLost NFC Championship
1999JacksonvilleLost AFC ChampionshipSt. LouisWon Super Bowl XXXIV
2000TennesseeLost DivisionalNew York GiantsLost Super Bowl XXXV
2001PittsburghLost AFC ChampionshipSt. LouisLost Super Bowl XXXVI
2002OaklandLost Super Bowl XXXVIIPhiladelphiaLost NFC Championship
2003New EnglandWon Super Bowl XXXVIIIPhiladelphiaLost NFC Championship
2004PittsburghLost AFC ChampionshipPhiladelphiaLost Super Bowl XXXIX
2005IndianapolisLost DivisionalSeattleLost Super Bowl XL
2006San DiegoLost DivisionalChicagoLost Super Bowl XLI
2007New EnglandLost Super Bowl XLIIDallasLost Divisional
2008TennesseeLost DivisionalNew York GiantsLost Divisional
2009IndianapolisLost Super Bowl XLIVNew OrleansWon Super Bowl XLIV
2010New EnglandLost DivisionalAtlantaLost Divisional
2011New EnglandLost Super Bowl XLVIGreen BayLost Divisional
2012DenverLost DivisionalAtlantaLost NFC Championship

Only two AFC No. 1 seeds in the modern era have gone on to win the Super Bowl, the 1998 Broncos and 2003 Patriots. Only two No. 1 seeds in either conference have won the Super Bowl this century.

That bye week might be needed to heal up from the rigors of the 17-week NFL season, but it sure has meant more to rust than rest.


Chargers Have Hope

You can be sure Chargers fans are taking the above historical results to heart. It gives them hope of beating Manning in Denver in the divisional round. Heck, all three of the AFC's other remaining teams have a victory over the AFC's No. 1 seed, as NFL insider Adam Schefter points out in a tweet:


The losses to the Patriots and Colts came on the road. The Chargers have already stolen one in Denver, on a Thursday night of Week 15 (Dec. 12). The two teams play a month later for the right to face Luck or Brady in the AFC Championship.

Since 2005, No. 6 seeds are 6-2 against No. 1 seeds in the divisional playoffs. H/T to Schefter again for that pearl of wisdom:

You can bet Manning knows this all too well, though. The Pittsburgh Steelers' January 2006 upset of Manning's Colts started that run. That year, the NFC's top-seeded Seattle Seahawks beat the sixth-seeded Washington Redskins only to succumb to those Steelers in the Super Bowl, by the way.

The only other No. 1 seed to beat a No. 6 since 2005? Manning's Colts eliminating the Baltimore Ravens in 2009.


Another No. 1 vs. No. 6 Rematch

The NFC's No. 6 seed, the New Orleans Saints, has also already played its divisional playoff opponent this season The Saints lost at the Seattle Seahawks resoundingly 34-7 on Dec. 2.

The Saints and Chargers are the only playoff teams assured to have to play on the road in the Conference Championship week. Even the 49ers and Colts can host a Conference Championship Game if the cards fall in their favor. 


Remaining NFC Scenarios

  • No. 1 Seattle Seahawks: Play host to either Carolina or San Francisco
  • No. 2 Carolina Panthers: Travel to Seattle or play host to New Orleans
  • No. 5 San Francisco 49ers: Travel to Seattle or play host to New Orleans
  • No. 6 New Orleans Saints: Travel to Carolina or San Francisco


Remaining AFC Scenarios

  • No. 1 Denver Broncos: Play host to either New England or Indianapolis
  • No. 2 New England Patriots: Travel to Denver or play host to San Diego
  • No. 4 Indianapolis Colts: Travel to Denver or play host to San Diego
  • No. 6 San Diego Chargers: Travel to Indianapolis or New England


Speaking of Quarterbacks Winning Early...

The Seahawks' Russell Wilson has won 24 games in his first two seasons, the most by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era, according to Luck is tied for second with Ben Roethlisberger with 22 victories.

Beyond Wilson and Luck, only seven other quarterbacks in NFL history have started playoff games in each of their first two seasons.


QBs to Start Playoff Games as Rookies and Sophomores
Dan Marino                 1983-84Miami Dolphins
Bernie Kosar              1985-86Cleveland Browns
Shaun King                1999-2000Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ben Roethlisberger      2004-05Pittsburgh Steelers
Joe Flacco2008-09Baltimore Ravens
Mark Sanchez2009-10New York Jets
Andy Dalton2011-12Cincinnati Bengals
Andrew Luck2012-13Indianapolis Colts
Russell Wilson*2012-13Seattle Seahawks


San Francisco's Super Encore?

The defending champion Baltimore Ravens missed the playoffs this year, leaving just the San Francisco 49ers alive to return to the Super Bowl. The 49ers then survived the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers and the famed "frozen tundra" Sunday.

San Francisco is the 14th Super Bowl runner-up to make the postseason since 1990. None of them won the Super Bowl. In fact, no team has even returned to the Super Bowl after losing it since the Buffalo Bills of the early 1990s.

Until last January, no Super Bowl runner-up had even made it to the Conference Championship the following season. The New England Patriots did that last year, only to fall to the Ravens.

Here are the results of the Super Bowl runners-up in the postseason since 1990:

Super Bowl Runner-up in Playoffs Since 1990
1991Buffalo13-3Won division; Advanced to Super Bowl XXVI
1992Buffalo11-5Wild Card; Advanced to Super Bowl XXVII
1993Buffalo12-4Won division; Advanced to Super Bowl XXVIII
1995San Diego9-7Wild Card; Advanced to Wild Card
1996Pittsburgh10-6Won division; Advanced to Divisional
1997New England10-6Won division; Advanced to Divisional
1998Green Bay11-5Wild Card; Advanced to Wild Card
2000Tennessee13-3Won division; Advanced to Divisional
2006Seattle9-7Won division; Advanced to Divisional
2009Arizona10-6Won division; Advanced to Divisional
2010Indianapolis10-6Won division; Advanced to Wild Card
2011Pittsburgh12-4Wild Card; Advanced to Wild Card
2012New England12-4Won division; Advanced to AFC Championship
2013San Francisco12-4Wild Card; TBD

No matter whatever happens in the divisional round, the stage should be set for an unforgettable Conference Championship Week.


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