The BCS National Championship Game has been covered from every angle—twice, three times, maybe—which means there’s only one angle left to take. It also happens to be the most important angle of them all.
Which prop bets should you make?
OK, so maybe it’s not the most important matter of the final BCS game to ever be played. But it will likely be the most entertaining.
Florida State has been bet up to a nine-point favorite against Auburn, at least that’s where the number has settled at most sportsbooks with plenty of bets to come in. The over/under will close somewhere in the high 60s—likely around 68—which means points are forecast in large amounts.
For those looking for other ways to make things interesting, however, the online sportsbook Bovada is here to help with a long list of fascinating prop bets to make things interesting.
As for some of those prop bets that are worth a look, let’s pick some winners.
Florida State is going to move the football, and Jameis Winston is going to perform well.
With that said, the under here is awfully tempting. Not because the opportunities won’t be there through the air, but because it wouldn’t shock me to see Florida State stress the ground game with its impressive stable of running backs, playing for possession and a slow, successful attack.
It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Winston run the ball more than he has in recent weeks, especially with Auburn keying on the many weapons FSU will try to get the ball to. Winston will deliver, but the yardage might be spread some.
Bet Placed: Under 294.5 passing yards
For Auburn to win this game, Nick Marshall is going to have to throw the football more than he has in recent games. Of course, this blueprint could all be derailed by a few big running plays from the Tigers, but Marshall is expected to put the ball up in the air.
And if Florida State jumps out to a lead of any kind—certainly a possible scenario after examining the point spread—then Auburn will have to abandon its run-heavy script in favor of throws.
There are multiple scenarios where this over comes in, and 12.5 just doesn't feel like enough.
Bet Placed: Over 12.5 completions
One of Florida State's deadliest weapons isn’t talked about enough. Nick O’Leary, the same Nick O’Leary who walked away from an insane motorcycle crash last year, could be the target of many Jameis Winston throws.
O’Leary caught at least three balls in eight games this season, and with Auburn looking to eliminate the talented group of FSU wideouts, O’Leary should could get ample looks in the middle of the field and on checkdowns.
Don’t be shocked if this number approaches the over in the first half. Therefore, take the over.
Bet Placed: Over three receptions
Half the football field. That’s how far someone—anyone for that matter—will have to travel in order for this to cash. It’s an ambitious, aggressive line, but it’s also one I’m willing to take.
Auburn finished the season with 15 plays of 50 yards or more, tied for second in the country. Florida State finished with 11 plays of 50 yards or more, which tied for 15th in the country.
These teams are explosive and fast, and multiple big plays from either side seem possible. Is the long layoff a concern? Absolutely. Although I’m willing to wear that risk given the speed on the field and the offensive talent on each team.
It only takes one play, and I think we'll see one.
Bet Placed: Over 51.5 yards
Here’s where things get goofy. Before settling in on a selection, however, here are your betting options for this particular prop bet:
0-20 Points Scored (25-1)
21-30 Points Scored (25-1)
31-40 Points Scored (20-1)
41-50 Points Scored (9-1)
51-60 Points Scored (7-2)
61-70 Points Scored (3-2)
71+ Points Scored (3-2)
It’s easy to see what the oddsmakers are expecting: points, lots of points, and the back end of these options is where they expect things to end up. They’re probably right about this, although there’s some value to be had here.
So let’s have some fun, shall we?
The 41-50-point option comes fully equipped with a solid 9-1 payout. It's possible that each team will hit this number themselves, but it's also possible the long layoff between games will disrupt rhythm once again.
Now, they may not fire slow enough to keep this total under 50 points, but 9-1 is outstanding value on a feasible scenario.
Bet Placed: 41-50 points scored (9-1)
Consider this your coin-flip prop bet for the BCS National Championship Game. In fact, you’re better off flipping a coin to pick a side, although that’s why prop bets are the absolute best.
“Odd” can be yours for the chalky price of 5-6, while “Even” checks in at a cool 1-1.
FUN FACT: Florida State’s last five games ended up in even scores, which means absolutely nothing but is good enough for me to take the slight underdog here.
Did I mention that prop bets are the absolute best?