A Shot in the Dark: My Attempt at a Mock Draft

Bill Parcells will make sure he has his guy locked up going in to the draft and won’t allow what happened with Russell last year to happen to him. Jake Long will be for the Dolphins and Parcells what Jumbo Elliot was for the Giants and Parcells. It’s tough to take an OL first, but Jake Long isn’t your average OT and will be a pro bowler right from the start and will stay there for a long time.

They would rather have the other Long, but they can’t be too upset over this. Word has it Gholston is being considered here as well as Dorsey, but Long is the safe pick and I see it going this way. Chris Long will have an immediate impact for the Rams.

If he’s healthy he’s a monster. If he’s healthy he might be the best player in this draft and the Falcons are in love with that fact. If it’s me I’m taking Matt Ryan here, but the Falcons love this guy and you can’t blame them, it’s just a huge risk.

This will be a very interesting pick. Ideally the Raiders would love to have the son of Howie fall to them here which could actually happen if the Rams decide to go with Dorsey or Gholston. But with Long gone it comes down to McFadden or Gholston. I can certainly see this going either way, but how do you pass on McFadden? How?

All of the so called “experts” have this pick being Brandon Alberts, and I understand that and think it’s certainly possible. But I don’t know how they can pass on Ryan. Brodie Croyle isn’t the answer for a franchise QB and the Chiefs have to know that. Matt Ryan might not be Dan Marino or John Elway but he isn’t a bust either. It would be a mistake for them to go anywhere but here.

6.       N.Y. Jets – Vernon Gholston DE, Ohio St.

McFadden and Ryan are the guys they have their eyes on, but they can’t be to disappointed to have Gholston land in their laps here. There is concern that he didn’t produce on the field as much as in workouts, but athletically the guy is a beast. And you know they love taking New England’s guy one pick ahead of them.

This is where the draft gets a bit harder to predict. They love Vernon Gholston, but they don’t get a chance at him here. There’s talk that they would take Derrick Harvey and put him at OLB, but I don’t see it. In my mind this pick comes down to one of three guys, Leodis McKelvin, Ryan Clady or Keith Rivers. I think Clady might be a bit bigger than N.E. like their O-Lineman to be. I considered Rivers to be the better choice here, but with the signing of Hobson I think they hold off on that and address their biggest need which is Cornerback. I know they don’t always like to take corners early, but they need this guy.

They want Matt Ryan an I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them trading up to get him, but I’m not predicting trades here. Without Ryan there they’ll look at defensive backs and offensive lineman. With McKelvin gone it’ll come down to Brandon Alberts or Ryan Clady. The versatility of Alberts pushes him up and is the reason he has flown so far up the boards.

This is the guy they want and they need and if he’s here it shouldn’t take them long to make this pick. Ellis has made a strong impression in pre-draft workouts and could move up out of the Bengals reach, but I only see that happening if teams get gun shy on Dorsey and I’m sure the Bengals aren’t opposed to settling for him if need be.

Ideally, this pick would be Ellis or McKelvin. And McKelvin is still a very likely possibility as the Pats pick was a bit of a reach. But if it plays out this way than it comes down to Keith Rivers or one of the Cornerbacks, Cromartie or Jenkins. The popular pick is a cornerback, but I think it’ll be Rivers. He has all the tools and the ability to play inside or outside.

Everything I see, read and hear is saying these guys are sold on taking a WR. This pick is an assumption that before the draft rolls around they will realize there just isn’t a WR worthy of this high if a pick. Devin Thomas is to unproven on the field and Malcolm Kelly isn’t showing anything in workouts. Taking Jenkins to replace Clements simply makes the most sense and I hope Buffalo can see that.

They want a DT but I doubt they’ll be willing to trade up to get one, though you never know with these guys as they’ve done it before (Jay Cutler). With no DT worth taking they’ll have many options including, Derrick Harvey, Ryan Clady, Jeff Otah, Chris Williams, a number of WR’s, and the guy I ultimately think they’ll settle on, Clady. They’re lucky to find him here and won’t hesitiate to snatch him up.

They want an Offensive Lineman. But with Clady and Alberts gone and Derrick Harvey still here I think the temptation is to strong and they pass on Chris Williams and Jeff Otah. Harvey is turning in some very impressive workouts and his speed rushing skills would be an ideal pair with the strong Peppers.

It won’t be easy for them to pass on Mendenhall with this pick, but they need offensive line help and they need it bad. They’ll be deciding between Chris Williams and Jeff Otah, but I think they go Williams as he is more ready to step right in and contribute. Otah is still a work in progress.

The Lions have a tough decision on their hands here. If Derrick Harvey is here I think he would edge out anyone else. But he isn’t here and so it comes down to Mendenhall and Mayo. The Lions love Mayo and have been targeting him for the 2^nd Round all the way, but now he is flying up the boards and they won’t likely get him in the 2^ndRound. I think this is a battle of who Millen wants (Mendenhall) and who Marinelli wants (Mayo) and I believe Marinelli wins out on this one as he did with picking Ernie Sims.

They’ll be holding their breath during the Lions pick and I don’t think will be able to pass up Mendenhall. What a running back duo this will give them and really complete their offense. They need a defensive back, but they can get one in the second round, they can’t pass up Mendenhall.

17.   Minnesota Vikings – Jeff Otah OT, Pittsburgh

Everything points to this pick being Phillip Merling and it very well could be, but I’m going out on a limb and saying they get a deal done for Jared Allen and with it they turn to the other side of the line. Otah has all the physical tools and potential to be a great OT, it’ll just take him a year or two to refine those tools and realize the potential.

They want one of the OT’s and hate to see Otah come off the board one pick before them. They’ll consider Gosder Cherilus, but I think they’ll turn their attention to the Defensive Backfield. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a risky pick in my opinion and that’s why he lands here and not earlier, but his upside is tremendous.

This could be a cornerback, but I think with no WR off the board yet Philadelphia will gladly take their pick of the bunch and that pick will be Thomas. He isn’t the most proven on the field, but he has the most skill if he can put it together.

This is a pick that could go a lot of different ways. They’ll give cornerback a look and will be tempted by Aqib Talib no doubt. Phillip Merling will also be a potential pick as he’s definitely a top 20 guy. I wouldn’t even be suprsied to see them take a look at one of the quarterbacks here. But ultimately the playmaking potential of DeSean Jackson is too much. Early Doucet is another option if WR is where they turn.

Wide receiver is the flashy pick, but there isn’t much separating the next best WR here and one they could get in round 2. Merling is definitely the best player available at this time and fills a need. Kenny Phillips is the darkhorse here.

There is no denying there interest in the two Arkansas backs and while this isn’t the one they want the most they are very willing to settle for him. His speed and explosiveness will be a great compliment to Barber and will give the Cowboys one of the best if not the best running back tandem in the game. Felix Jones will end up being one of the ten best players in this draft in my opinion.

Will Ben Roethlisberger get the big WR he so covets? Or will the Steelers go with a more traditional Steelers player such as Quentin Groves or Gosder Cherilus. But Ben is the man in Pittsburgh and what Ben wants he gets this year I think. Partnering Kelly with the automatic hands of Hines Ward and explosiveness of Santonio Holmes makes a great receiving corps with Heath Miller tossed in for gravy.

The fourth receiver in six picks comes off the boards here. They need someone for Vince to throw to and while Sweed has slipped some, he still has the potential to be the best receiver in this class.

They need a replacement for Shaun Alexander and Stewart isn’t a bad choice for the job. He does have injury concerns, but at this spot in the draft, with the skills he has, this isn’t a risky pick in my mind, it’s a pick they have to make.

With Stroud gone they need someone cause I don’t think Jimmy Kennedy is the answer. Both Kentwan Balmer and Rubin would be excellent choices here, but I’m giving the nod to Rubin in a toss-up.

A running back is possible here as is a cornerback. Cherilus however should turn into a solid starting OT and is a safe pick here for a team who isn’t in need of a whole lot. I mean the fact that there is talk of them taking a RB with LT on their team proves how set they are.

Dallas manages to land the two players they are keying in on and Talib. I’m not sold on Talib at all, and I think Brandon Flowers would be a better pick, but Jerry Jones likes Talib and that’s all that matters.

29.   San Francisco 49ers – Kentwan Balmer DT, NC State

People are speculating that they’ll use this pick and take the second QB, but they won’t make that kind of investment with Alex Smith still on the team, a lot of people have given up on Smith but the 49ers aren’t one of them and neither am I. They’ll consider a few guys such as Flowers, Antoine Cason, Duane Brown and Mario Manningham. But Balmer is rising up the boards and should provide some decent stability in the middle of their D-Line.

Mike Mayock has called this pick and has swayed me away from giving G-Bay a CB here. Bubba Franks is certainly not what he used to be and Keller has the skills to be a starter right from the get go.

There isn’t much doubt that the Giants want Phillips and won’t think to hard about this pick if he is there. The rich get richer landing a difference making safety.