Weidman vs Silva 2 Fight Card: 5 Bets Worth Taking a Close Look At
Now, I know that UFC 168 has two of the hottest rematches in MMA history and features an absolutely stacked card from top to bottom...but how about we make things interesting?
Betting is a big deal in MMA these days, and there are some interesting bouts and interesting props available for UFC 168.
So what bets are worth thinking about? What revenue-generating possibilities are there for this event? Where should you look to make back that $60?
Find out right here!
(Lines provided by Bovada.lv)
Manny Gamburyan Wins Inside the Distance
Dennis Siver is a big, strong featherweight. As with all fighters who carry the label of "big and strong," the cardio issues are there. Another issue he has? Submission defense.
Enter TUF5 runner-up, former WEC title contender and Ronda Rousey training partner Manny Gamburyan.
Odds are, if Gamburyan is going to win, it is going to be by submission. Odds are Siver isn't going to knock out Gamburyan. Odds are Siver is going to gas.
Putting all that together, the +500 line on Gamburyan earning a stoppage victory is oddly intriguing. He is a ridiculously underrated grappler, with a legitimate Judo black belt as well a black belt in karate to help him hang with Siver standing.
If you are feeling bold, this would be the way to go.
Michael Johnson Wins by Decision
I am on the Michael Johnson hype train right now. Because of that, I feel almost indignant that he is the underdog against Gleison Tibau (Johnson is sitting at +115).
+115 isn't that great a line, though. It's barely breaking even. The effort, then, goes into choosing how Johnson will win.
Of Johnson's 13 career wins, six have come via knockout, two have come via submission and five have come by decision. Tibau's losses, meanwhile, have almost entirely come by decision (of his nine losses, six have come by decision).
Johnson winning by decision sports a much more interesting +250 line, and in my book is the most likely way this fight ends.
Josh Barnett Wins by Decision
Travis Browne is a good fighter. He also comes from a very good camp in Greg Jackson's MMA.
That said, he hasn't really fought any legitimate wrestlers, and has never faced somebody who has the sort of experience Josh Barnett does. Once again, though, he is quite good.
Good enough, I'd wager, to survive three rounds with Josh Barnett.
If Greg Jackson knows MMA, and I'm fairly certain he does, he has been dedicating all of Browne's time and training effort to working on his bottom game and submission defense. That will pay dividends...in time.
Right now, though, he is facing the most experienced mixed martial artist in the UFC's heavyweight division. Barnett will be able to drag him to the ground, hold him down, score points and take a decision.
Yes, I know. Barnett has just four decision wins. The thing is, betting isn't about picking the most likely outcome. It's about working the numbers, and that +400 for Barnett winning by decision is a pretty good-looking number.
Tate vs. Rousey Makes It out of Round 1
I'm not going to dress this up, because it doesn't really need to be. The staggering majority of fans are expecting Ronda Rousey to demolish Miesha Tate, probably by taking her down, roughing her up a bit and then turning her arm into a pretzel.
The question is when.
History would suggest the first round. After all, we've yet to see an opponent survive longer than Liz Carmouche did (4:49). If you're feeling like Tate might be able to last longer, though, there are some interesting numbers.
Rousey winning in Round 2 sports an 11/4 return. Round 3 (15/2), 4 (18/1) and 5 (33/1) are also worth considering. So, too, is Rousey earning the decision (8/1).
Tate is by far the biggest underdog on this card, so if you're feeling her chances, a straight bet on her winning is the way to go (she is a +475 underdog).
Chris Weidman Wins by T/KO or Submission
If you're not favoring Chris Weidman, this is obviously not the greatest bet for you. For those that are favoring Weidman...who is expecting him to win by decision?
No. The entire reason people bought into Weidman as a legitimate threat to Anderson Silva in the first place is his combination of wrestling and stopping power.
Picking Weidman straight-up is running at +140 right now. Picking him winning inside the distance, though, is running at +205. Picking him by TKO, KO or DQ is running 17/4 while by submission is sitting at 9/2.
I, personally, don't feel confident in Weidman's cardio. I feel like he will either win early or lose late. Because of that, I am pushing Weidman winning inside the distance. Hard.