Cheap Seats * * * Portland TrailBlaze's Offseason: Draft Questions

The Portland Trailblazers have enormous upside. This off-season provides a chance for them to secure a line-up that they feel can win a championship. Chris Charbonnier ponders the possibilities, specifically via the draft.

by Chris Charbonnier (Scribe)

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April 21, 2008

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NBA, Portland Trail Blazers, NBA Draft, 2008 NBA Draft

The 2008 NBA Draft will go down in history as one of the best. Beasley, Rose, Bayless, Augustine, Mayo, Lopez and Gordon. I stopped the list short, but it could go on for awhile. In some mock drafts, players like Kevin Love, Hasheem Thabeet, Roy Hibbert and even Augustine are falling outside of the top 20...consistently. So what does this mean for the association? It means that good teams in the middle of the first round will be picking up good players. In case you were wondering, the Blazers fit the bill.The 2008 Draft is decision time for Portland. Who do we cut? Who should we evaluate further? How are we going to set up the core of our team? The list of questions is long. Luckily, the Blazers have the pieces in place to have a big draft and an even bigger future. Kevin Pritchard has shown in the past that he is a draft genius, and if he can work his magic this time around, a dynasty will be in place.

Before discussing what the Blazers should do in the draft, certain questions must be presented and answered:

    - Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster? Having two young SF’s on this team is inefficient. Both are potential stars and neither can realistically change positions on this team. So, the obvious answer is to trade one of them to fill other needs (i.e. PG, SF...trust me). The Blazers need to decide which of these players fits into the model dynasty they are building. You can get my opinion in a separate article. The point is, one of these guys has to go, and you might as well trade him in a year with a deep draft. Management has had long enough to evaluate these players and must decide which is the best fit.

    - What is James Jones' place on this team? A veteran SF is needed on this team, which is odd considering we have one. I've always loved James Jones and could never figure out why Phoenix didn't use him more effectively. Now, I am starting to see why. This year like others in his career, Jones missed a substantial amount of time due to injury. This really hurt his ability to perform later on which allowed me to ask the question above. The biggest concern for the blazers is Mr. Jones' contract. He can opt out this summer, which many expect him to do. He can get more money and playing time outside of Portland. For that reason alone, the blazers should plan like he has no place on this team and act accordingly. 

    - Can Steve Blake, Jarrett Jack or Sergio Rodriguez be the PG of the future? No.

Now to the actual draft. As far as I can tell, there are only four things the Blazers can do in this year’s draft:

    1. Stay where you are in the first round, draft the best available PG and then use your three early 2nd rounders on potential

    2. Package your first rounder with a future pick, some of your second rounders, current players, or a combination of the three in order to move up and get the PG you feel can lead a dynasty.

    3. Stay where you are in the first round and draft the best available SF. Then package some combination of future picks, current players and 2nd rounders to get another lottery pick. Use that pick to draft your wanted PG.

    4. Trade away your 1st rounder for players to a team that is re-building.

Of these options the obvious cons are as follows:

    1. It’s fine if the blazers wait for a PG since this draft is PG heavy and would be  sure to land a player with some potential. The problem with not doing anything is that you keep Webster, Outlaw, and your army of complementary players. Eventually, some combination of these guys is going to get traded or god-forbid be let go into free agency. Why not do that now, in a year with a loaded draft? It makes sense to set-in-stone the majority of your dynasty as early as possible.

    2. The team would get the PG it wants to lead the dynasty, but would lose picks  and players that it could use on another 1st rounder.

    3. A young team gets younger. While this option may hurt you during the next couple years, it could be the decision that creates an actual dynasty in the long run.

    4. This is an interesting option with a ton of possibilites. The biggest con I see here is missing out on the players you could get with option #3 who have enormous upside.

Now that we’re all on the same page, let’s do some day-dreaming. Let’s say the Blazers choose option three. The ping-pong balls go as planned and we end up with the 13th pick. Nicolas Batum falls to us and we pick him. Don’t think this is possible? NBAdraft.net has him going at 17! So, then we decide that Webster is the SF we want to keep. Let’s package Outlaw, Jack, LaFrentz and a 2nd round pick for something around 10. You’re saying this isn’t possible? While I’m not an expert on trade values regarding draft picks, I do know that this trade would make sense for a lot of teams. Look at Charlotte, Chicago, New Jersey, Indiana, and Sacramento, the teams with picks 8-12. Travis Outlaw is basically like a guy coming out of college as a senior, a lot like Brandon Roy did. He’s 23, is long, athletic and coachable. The amount he has improved even in the last year is amazing. He is the type of guy who could push a team like Orlando over the top since he could come in right away and contribute. My point is, teams would be willing to move down in the draft by 20 picks (remember we have two high 2nd rounders) if they could get Outlaw. Then, with the pick, take Westbrook, who I absolutely love. Just like that, our roster is starting to look gorgeous. Take a look:

PG: Russell Westbrook (Pick #1), Blake, Rodriguez

SG: Roy, Fernandez, Pick #3

SF: Webster, Nicolas Batum (#2)

PF: Aldridge, Frye, Pick #4, McRoberts

C:  Oden, Pryzbilla 

Of course, this might not be the option the Blazers management chooses. Alot is to be determined. What I feel will happen for sure is the trade of Outlaw for a lottery pick or veteran player(s). And, since James Jones will be leaving most likely, this creates a need at SF. Whether this is done through the draft or free agency is anyone's guess. One way or another, the Blazers will go into next season with a franchise PG and a new SF who the team feels can really contribute. This will be done via draft, trade, or some combination of the two. The options are limitless.

The draft holds so many possibilities that if you think about it for too long, you’ll probably feel like you did after eating paint chips. Hopefully, KP and the Blazer staff will make the necessary decisions to build a dynasty-type roster. The team has too much potential to settle for being very good. If things go the right way, this team could be the BEST for a very long time. 

comments (5) write a comment »

  1. It must be good to be a Blazer's fan right now. After years of putting up with sub-par performances by the Jailblazers it must be nice to have the future looking so bright.

  2. I know I am in the minority here, but I would like to see them keep Jack and get rid of Blake. I can see the club trying to slowly move Roy to point guard. Jarret Jack has been the only other guard that has proven himself as being able to get to the rack consistently. What this does is allows the Blazers to plug Rudy Fernandez into the SG slot, and possibly move Martell Webster into the backup 2/3 spot, depending on what matchups they are getting on the floor.

    However, all of this is under the assumption that management likes what they have in Sergio Rodriguez, and that he will mature into a true point guard. If this is not the case, the answer to solving the log jam that is the Blazers roster becomes a lot more difficult.

    Also, I like the idea of trading LaFrenz to move up in the draft or to gather assets. I don't think the top line players are going to be available when his contract runs out. Most teams will resign their most important players.

    If you were Pritchard what would you do?

  3. They tried Outlaw at the 3 a few times this year and it did not go well. He is more a 4 or even a tweener...and since he has shown continual development whereas Webster did not develop as anticipated this year and compounded it with his irregular heartbeat he is less likely to be penciled in as far as reliability. Still, very promising. Don't be surprised to see some of the extra parts...Jack, Blake, Frye, Webster and Outlaw are all potentials, of which I think Outlaw the least likely...packaged together to move up. Then again, Patterson was talking about respecting the Blazer past of letting their core guys grow up together when talking about Duckwortth, Kersey, Porter, Drexler and Robinson...so he may just stand pat. Either way, good times ahead.

  4. Westbrook?! Are you kidding me? Dude, I'm a Blazer fan living in L.A. and I watched and went to many UCLA games at Pauley Pavilion the last couple years and trust me, we dont want the Blazers using a first round choice on this guy. He's a high energy guy and thats it. He has absolutely no consistent outside shot, or even a midrange shot for that matter. He plays good defense, but he will NEVER be a solid starter in the NBA. I would compare him to Eric Snow, and I dont know about you, but most Blazer fans dont want any part of a point guard who couldn't hit a 3 to save his life.

    Thank God I have the resolve to know that Kevin Pritchard would never make a mistake like drafting Westbrook. Bayless and Augustine are WAY better options. Those guys are playmakers in the mold of Tony Parker, except Bayless is a better shooter. I much rather have Tony Parker than Eric Snow.

  5. I completely disagree with you Ben. You don't like Westbrook? Fine. But Augustine is not the answer, and Bayless can't run a team from the PG position. Augustine looked terrible in the tournament against taller guards, the guards who will be defending him in the NBA. Even worse, he can't play a lick of defense.

    I love Bayless and think he'll be great, but not as a PG. He is a scorer with a scorer's mentality and that's not what we need. The primary scorers on this team will be Roy, Aldridge and Oden for years to come.

    No Westbrook = veteran PG. No way KP will throw away a pick on Augustine, and Bayless isn't good enough to trade the farm for (He'll be going #3 in the draft.)

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