Week 17 betting trends collide when the Texans and Titans finish their seasons Sunday afternoon in Nashville.
Texans-Titans point spread: Titans opened as six-point favorites; the total was 44. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 20.0-12.5 Titans
Why the Texans can cover the spread
Houston has lost 13 games in a row, but can't say it hasn't had some chances at snapping that streak. The Texans trailed New England by only a field goal into the fourth quarter last week before the Patriots pulled away.
Despite being 11 games below .500, Houston has actually out-gained opponents on the season by 33 yards per game. The Texans are also 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games in this series, after beating Tennessee 30-24 in overtime in September.
Why the Titans can cover the spread
Tennessee isn't in the playoff hunt, either, but just picked up a divisional road victory with a 20-16 win at Jacksonville. The Titans have now out-gained four of their last five opponents. Tennessee has lost nine games this season. Seven have basically come by one score or less, two of those in overtime.
With a couple of breaks here and there, they would still be in the playoff hunt. The Titans also seem to play to the oddsmakers' expectations, winning and losing when they're supposed to. So far this season they're 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS as favorites.
Odds Shark's computer is predicting a Tennessee victory and cover in a game that stays UNDER its total. But by the numbers Houston might be the better team in this matchup; the Texans have gained more yards than the Titans this season, while allowing fewer. When these teams met earlier this year, Houston out-gained Tennessee by more than 200 yards.
And realistically, the Titans shouldn't be favored by a touchdown over anybody. Take the points with the Texans to continue their 7-3 ATS streak against the Titans.
- Houston is 7-3 ATS past 10 games vs. Titans
- OVER is 6-1 past seven meetings in Tennessee
- Texans are 2-8 ATS past 10 road games
- Titans are 0-5 SU and ATS past five home games
- Titans have played six straight home OVERs
- Texans are 0-6 ATS past six divisional games
- Texans played six straight Week 17 OVERs