Koji Watanabe/Getty Images
It's official. After a fair amount of bad noise, Masahiro Tanaka is coming to MLB after all.
The Dodgers would seem to be the favorites to land the 25-year-old right-hander. Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (and plenty of others) has noted the club's interest in Tanaka, and you just get the sense that the Dodgers have been a bit too quiet this winter.
My horse, however, is the Yankees.
It's been noted that the new posting system hurts the Yankees, as the $20 million maximum bid will require them to put more money into Tanaka's contract if they want to land him. That means more money that will count against the luxury tax.
However, we noted earlier that the Yankees are already looking at being over the luxury tax in 2014. And while they'd still have a shot at being under if an A-Rod suspension complements a deal for Balfour, they'd also still have a potentially crippling weakness on their hands.
Hiroki Kuroda is really the only top-of-the-rotation pitcher the Yankees have. CC Sabathia started his inevitable decline in 2013, and there's a limit to how much Ivan Nova can be trusted. Going all-in on Tanaka would allow the Yankees to patch things up nicely and could easily be worth their while in the end.
If it comes to a bidding war between the Dodgers and Yankees, the Dodgers would surely be the first to back out. With Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dan Haren lined up, they can afford not to land Tanaka.
Prediction: Signs with Yankees for six years and $114 million (plus $20 million posting fee)