The odds are tricky for the BCS bowl games this year. College sports are the toughest to gauge. There are players who are dejected because they didn't get an opportunity to play for a national championship, programs that traditionally don't travel well and other factors.
Taking all those things into consideration, there are two favorites with a great chance to cover the spread. Here's a look at the most recent lines for each BCS bowl.
Stay away from the Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl and BCS title game. Those contests are too close to call. The games that are safe to bet are listed below.
It begins with the Fiesta Bowl clash.
Baylor Will Pound the Central Florida Knights in the Fiesta Bowl
The Baylor Bears are 16.5-point favorites. Yes that's a lot, but when a team scores as much as Art Briles' bunch, it isn't an unrealistic margin of victory.
Baylor won their 11 games by an average of 37.7 points per game. Think that's the product of a bunch of early-season blowouts? Partially, but only one team—aside from Oklahoma State who beat them—remained within 10 points of the Bears this season.
Fact is, Baylor is going to score a ton of points. Whether Central Florida can stay within three touchdowns depends on its ability to move the ball. Against a 5-7 SMU team that allowed 33 points per game to its opponents this season, UCF managed just 17.
Baylor will blow the Knights away.
Oklahoma Isn't in Alabama's League
No team should be jumping at the chance to face the Alabama Crimson Tide right now. The team is probably angry, but focused on making a statement. The Tide are 15-point favorites in the Sugar Bowl, but they stand to beat the Oklahoma Sooners by more.
Beating Alabama begins with stopping the run game. If a team can't slow the Tide's rushing attack down, it better have an offense capable of moving the ball consistently. The Sooners don't have a run game like Auburn's, and the Blake Bell-led passing game is ranked 101st in the nation.
In some ways, Oklahoma's run-pass balance is similar to Auburn's; the Sooners just aren't as dominant on the ground.
The inability to move the ball is going to lead to turnovers and a string of three-and-out drives. By the middle of the third quarter, Oklahoma's defense is going to be exhausted and Alabama will be up three touchdowns.
The Tide will win this one going away.
All spreads via Covers.com
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