Why USC Will Beat Ohio State: Lisa Horne Vs. Kevin Paul

(Photo by Jeff Golden/Getty Images)

Coaching

At first glance, one would give the Buckeyes the edge in coaching. After all, USC has a new DC (Rocky Seto), a new OC (John Morton), and some other new faces as well. The Buckeyes have all the important coaches back, including assistant of the year Jim Heacock.

So the Buckeyes have the edge, right?

Wrong. Pete Carroll is a defensive-minded genius. The D is his niche, and this year, he has to jell an inexperienced unit. Does anyone really want to bet against him in big games?

The D looks extremely nasty and fast, and if he can unleash Perry on Terrelle Pryor without him over-pursuing, Pryor will make some ill-advised throws. The USC secondary will seize on that.

The biggest issue for the Buckeyes is Jim Tressel's tendency to play conservatively. He does have a huge threat in Pryor, but will he open the playbook and let Pryor loose? He did it against USC in the first half last year, and while Pryor did start off well, the Trojans' D made adjustments and shut him down in the second half. Tressel then resorted to more conservative play.

The biggest question mark is which coach will make the appropriate adjustments first. I'll put my money on Carroll. There may be some huge chunks of yardage against USC's D-line in the first half, but Carroll will adjust. I don't see Tressel adjusting as quickly.

The second factor is big-game play mentality. The Buckeyes have lost three straight BCS Bowls, while the Trojans have lost one in the last five. The Buckeyes have an all-time bowl record of 18-22, while the Trojans' record is 31-16. Make no mistake, this is a bowl game.

Edge: USC

Intangibles

Is this really a big game? Probably more so for the Buckeyes than the Trojans. Why? Simple. For what seems like forever, Michigan and Ohio State fans have argued that the reason why USC has had such a great run in the Rose Bowl against Big Ten teams is because the Trojans have home-field advantage.

(I guess that brilliant game Texas won—at the Rose Bowl—for the BCS National Championship against USC has been conveniently forgotten.)

This is their chance to prove their point about home field advantage.

Is playing at the Shoe a big deal? Not really. The Rose Bowl holds over 100,000 people, so it's not like USC can't handle big crowds. In fact, USC has done very well on the road against non-conference teams in hostile venues.

Big wins @ Auburn, @ Arkansas, @ Virginia Tech (at Fed Ex Field), and @ Virginia early in the season have proven that Pete Carroll knows how to prep his teams for early road travel.

The philosophy is simple—score quick and early and take the home team crowd out of the game. But more than that, traveling from the West to the East is easier on the body than vice versa. Jet lag won't be a major factor. Weather isn't an issue either—Los Angeles in September is just as hot as Columbus.

What about the psychological factors? Ohio State doesn't fare well in big games—at least not lately—while the Trojans have a tendency to underachieve in little games but rarely fold in big games.

Tressel's record against BCS teams is 12-7, while Carroll's is 23-4. There is a bit of quiet desperation going on in Columbus. The SEC has owned the Buckeyes lately, and with a cupcake schedule this year, the Buckeyes won't be taken very seriously in the rankings if they lose to the Trojans. They have to win this game.

Tressel has been criticized for running a vanilla-style offense—with a big threat like Terrelle Pryor, Tressel has to open up the playbook. The Trojans' D did look susceptible to bootlegs and play-actions in spring practice—Corp ran off some big yards against the D.

Will Tressel test the Trojans early to see if they either contain or over-pursue?

I'll be the first to say it—if Tressel doesn't get more creative in play-calling and utilize Pryor's skills more, the scarlet and gray faithful will start to rumble. Loud. This game could be the biggest game of Jim Tressel's career. A blowout by the Trojans might be the beginning of the end. Yes, he won a BCS Championship, but any Miami fan will tell you he really didn't.

Don't bet against a cornered dog—they are usually the most ferocious when cornered.

Edge: Ohio State

Final Analysis

Sure it's three months away, but right now, barring any injuries, the USC Trojans should beat the Buckeyes at the Shoe. There are some question marks on both teams, but overall, the Trojans have more talent and a head coach that prepares his teams better.

Pryor could be frustrated by the passing D and will probably have more success running the ball initially. The big albatross for the Buckeyes will be not adjusting fast enough. Their main focus should be not allowing USC's prolific offense to score early and take out the home crowd.

Finally, there is this: The Buckeyes believe "the punt is the most important play in football." It may be the most important play in football if you have to punt a lot, but third down conversions are the most important play in college football. Period.

Last year, USC ranked 25th in third down conversions, while Ohio State ranked 34th. The two teams that went to the National Championship Game were ranked in the top 10 for third down conversions. Not punting.

USC was ranked No. 96 in punting, while Ohio State was ranked No. 40. Ohio State averaged 4.5 punts a game, while USC averaged around 3.5.

The Trojans averaged less than one punt per quarter and did it against 11 BCS teams. Ohio State averaged more than one punt per quarter against nine BCS teams, one FCS team, and a non-BCS conference team (Troy).

Prediction: USC 37, Ohio State 17

For Kevin's take on You're Right, I'm Wrong, click on Kevin Paul's blog.

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