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NFL Spreads Week 16: Underdogs Sure to Upset the Odds This Weekend

Dec 15, 2013; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Ace Sanders (18) celebrates with wide receiver Denard Robinson (16) and wide receiver Mike Brown (12) after a touchdown during the first half at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports
Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports
Joseph ZuckerFeatured ColumnistDecember 22, 2013

You better hurry. You've only got two more weeks left in the rest of the NFL regular season to pad your pocketbook. After all, gold-plated toilets don't come cheap.

There are plenty of intriguing lines on the schedule this week. This late into the season, you can take nothing for granted. Just because you've seen a team for 15 weeks doesn't mean you can say for sure how well it'll perform in Week 16.

If this season has proved anything, it's that there is no such thing as easy money. In order to properly place your bets, you need to do your homework and maybe take a chance here and there.

In order to better prepare you for the action ahead, here's a look at the lines for all 16 games this weekend. Odds are courtesy of OddsAndScores.com.

Week 16 ATS Picks
Home TeamAway TeamLineO/UPick (ATS)
Buffalo BillsMiami DolphinsMIA -2.543MIA
Carolina PanthersNew Orleans SaintsCAR -345CAR
Cincinnati BengalsMinnesota VikingsCIN -8.548CIN
Houston TexansDenver BroncosDEN -1053HOU
Jacksonville JaguarsTennessee TitansTEN -4.544JAX
Kansas City ChiefsIndianapolis ColtsKC -6.546.5KC
Washington RedskinsDallas CowboysDAL 353DAL
New York JetsCleveland BrownsNYJ -141.5NYJ
St. Louis RamsTampa Bay BuccaneersSTL -4.543TB
Seattle SeahawksArizona CardinalsSEA -1043SEA
Detroit LionsNew York GiantsDET -1049DET
Baltimore RavensNew England PatriotsBAL -245BAL
San Diego ChargersOakland RaidersSD -9.550.5SD
Green Bay PackersPittsburgh SteelersGB -144.5
Philadelphia EaglesChicago BearsPHI -355.5PHI
San Francisco 49ersAtlanta FalconsSF -1445ATL
Betting lines via ScoresAndOdds.com

Listed below are three teams that have the best chance of beating the odds.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dec 8, 2013; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Vincent Jackson (83) is congratulated by quarterback Mike Glennon (8) after a touchdown during the first half against the Buffalo Bills at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren't the mess they were earlier in the season. They're 4-2 in their last six games, with the two losses coming to the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers—two of the best teams in the league.

The Bucs have been an abysmal 1-5 on the road this year, so there is some cause for concern.

By playing in the Edward Jones Dome, at least Tampa won't have to worry about the elements coming into play. That should benefit Mike Glennon, whose numbers are better during indoor games. The key will be providing him with enough time in the pocket. Pro Football Focus noted that he's seeing heavy pressure quite often.

It's a bridge too far to expect the Buccaneers to win. But with their improvement in the second half and the unpredictability of the St. Louis Rams, this game could easily be decided by a field goal or less.

 

Atlanta Falcons

Dec 15, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) throws a pass in the first half against the Washington Redskins at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports
Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Revenge can be a strong motivating factor.

The Atlanta Falcons have nothing to play for this season aside from avenging their loss in the 2012 NFC Championship Game and playing spoiler for teams already headed to the postseason.

It won't make up for missing out on the playoffs, but beating the San Francisco 49ers will give the Falcons a tiny bit of satisfaction.

That's why it's a bit surprising the line for this game is minus-14. Certainly San Francisco deserves to be favored, and playing at home means a boost in terms of the line, but still, that's an awfully big spread to have.

It wouldn't appear Matt Ryan is in bad health, either. Even after all the hits he's taken in the pocket, he said, "I feel good. I really do. I feel good at this point. My body feels as healthy as it possibly can. I’ve been taking good care of myself this year. So, at this point I feel good," via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's D. Orlando Ledbetter.

Although they've been racked with injuries, the Falcons haven't been playing up to their potential. With nothing to lose in this game, they'll make it somewhat close. Plus, San Francisco may be dispirited from possibly watching the Seattle Seahawks lock up the NFC West.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Dec 5, 2013; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Geno Hayes (55) celebrates after making an interception in the final three minutes of the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at EverBank Field. The Jacksonville Jaguars best the Ho
Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

Once the season was pretty much over, the Jacksonville Jaguars players seemingly adopted a more carefree approach, one that has served them very well down the stretch. Jacksonville has improved a lot from the train wreck it was earlier in the season and won four of its last six.

That run began with a win over the Tennessee Titans back in Week 10, and it's hard to argue that the Jags aren't a better team this time around.

Meanwhile, the Titans are losers of five of their last six.

Much like the Bucs game, the Jaguars may not win, but they should at least keep this one close, with a field goal providing the difference.

Jacksonville is playing too well right now to count it out against a team struggling as much as the Titans are.

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