Although it is good to draft your fantasy team with your gut... its also important to look at the hard facts of what you are looking at when it means the most.
Most leagues have their playoffs in weeks 14 thru 16. They do this to avoid having the championship on week 17 where some players are benched or play sparingly to prevent a injury before the "REAL" playoffs.
I'm going to get to the point here, you can have the best team money can buy during the regular season and go undefeated. If you get to the playoffs and don't put up points... you LOSE!!!
I've broken down the generic top 4 players at each position along with an analysis of their match-ups for weeks 14, 15 and 16.
This technique isn't a testimony to what you should absolutely do, but please consider.
Adrien Peterson: Cinn at home, at Car, at Chi
Michael Turner: NO at home, at NYJ, BUF at home
Matt Forte: GB at home, at BAL, MIN at home
DeAngelo Williams: at NE, MIN at home, at NYG
Turners matchups look juicy as New Orleans and the Jets can be beat on the ground. The other three don't look so appetizing! Williams might be the worst and remember he splits carries.
Forte and AP don't have easy roads... as you never want to see Minnesotta, Chicago or Baltimore on your schedule as a runningback.
Bargain rbs with light schedules;
Larry Johnson: BUF at home, CLE at home and at CIN
Chris Johnson: STL, MIA and SD all at home!!! how sweet is that?
Larry Fitzgerald: at SF, at DET, STL at home
Randy Moss: CAR at home, at BUF, JAC at home
Calvin Johnson: at BAL, ARZ at home, at SF
Andre Johnson: SEA at home, at STL, at MIA
While none of these matchup groups look really tough, Calvin Johnson at Baltimore during the first week of the playoffs could be a death wish. Remember also that wide receiver matchups are far different than running backs.
Playing Cup Cake teams for WRs can be a bad thing... if your runningbacks get the job done there's no reason to pass anymore, right? tricky tricky
Here are a couple wide receivers with great playoff matchups;
Roddy White: NO at home, at NYJ, BUF at home
TJ Houshmanzadeh: at HOU, TB at home, at GB
Jason Witten: SD at home, at NO, at WAS
Antonio Gates: at DAL, CIN at home, at TEN
Tony Gonzales: NO at home, at NYJ, BUF at home
Dallas Clark: DEN at home, at JAC, NYJ at home
The tight-end position can be a bit of a challenge when looking at match-ups. You should however consider the tight-end as a blocker against teams with good pass rush abilities.
If Jason Witten has to protect his room-mate from getting sacked everyother down, it is pretty hard to catch passes! I really like Dallas Clark with the absence of Marvin Harrison.
Antonio Gates isn't as popular as he used to be, but make no mistake that when healthy he is almost impossible to cover. Tight-ends can be a big threat and more confident catching touchdowns at home.
Thought worthy alternatives;
Heath Miller: at CLE, GB at home, BAL at home
Kellen Winslow: NYJ at home, at SEA, at NO
Tom Brady: CAR at home, at BUF, JAC at home
Drew Brees: at ATL, DAL at home, TB at home
Kurt Warner: at SF, at DET, STL at home
Peyton Manning: DEN at home, at JAC, NYJ at home
The hardest part of playing fantasy football is the ability to draft players that you HATE. Tom Brady is a fantasy nightmare to me.
I hate his guts as a member of the Pats, but I have the fantasy knowledge to use him as a fantasy player. Once you can get past that you will be closer to winning your league.
Warner clearly has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule of the four ,on paper that is.
Brees looks to have the toughest as I wouldn't want to put my money on playing at Atlanta then play late season matchups against Dallas and Tampa.
Possible qb steals;
Matt Ryan: NO at home, at NYJ, BUF at home
Matt Hasselback: at HOU, TB at home, at GB
It is important not to over-think your picks based on "WHAT IFS"... leave that to me