Texas Longhorns vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Odds: Alamo Bowl Pick, Analysis

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Texas Longhorns vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Odds: Alamo Bowl Pick, Analysis
Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

Two programs that are accustomed to vying for shots at the national title will meet up in the Alamodome. The Texas Longhorns are playing in their second straight Alamo Bowl, after defeating Oregon State 31-27 last year.

The Oregon Ducks are one of the biggest favorites of the bowl season, giving up 13.5 points on the opening Alamo Bowl odds menu.

 

Alamo Bowl point spread: Ducks opened as 13.5-point favorites; the total was 69.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 52.2-34.1 Ducks

 

Why Oregon can cover the Alamo Bowl spread

Making a case for the Ducks isn’t hard. Oregon (10-2) is one of the most talented teams in the nation, with an offense capable of hanging 70 in any game. The Ducks finished second in the country in scoring and yardage, with 49.6 points and 573 yards per game.

Led by early-season Heisman favorite quarterback Marcus Mariota, Oregon was ranked No. 2 in the nation and on the verge of playing in the national championship.

But after losing to Stanford, motivation evaporated, and the team finished 2-2 straight up and 0-4 against the spread in its final four games. The recent Alamo Bowl betting odds history shows favorites covering at a nice 4-1 ATS clip.

 

Why Texas can cover the Alamo Bowl spread

Unlike Oregon, the Longhorns (8-4) are more than happy to be playing in the Alamo Bowl this year. The Longhorns have been historically good in bowls, going 12-1 in their last 13.  After a terrible start to the season, a win over then No. 12 Oklahoma sparked a six-game win streak that saved the Longhorns' season and brought them within a game of a Big 12 title. 

Look for the Longhorns' two-headed running attack of Johnathan Gray and Malcolm Brown to run rampant on Oregon’s 66th-ranked run defense in order to keep the ball out of the hands of the Ducks' high-octane offense.

It will be a major upset if Texas can extend its 12-1 SU run in bowl games with a win, but covering a big number will be easier.

 

Smart pick

Despite the lack of motivation, Oregon is a far superior team to the Longhorns. Not only that, but the Ducks match up extremely well schematically with Texas. Oregon’s option attack is one of the most dynamic rushing offenses in all of college football, and the Longhorns have proved to be susceptible to potent ground attacks.

In their final game, they surrendered 221 rushing yards to Baylor, and earlier in the year, BYU’s option attack gouged Texas for 550 yards on the ground. Oregon could break records on the ground on the way to a rout and should cover the 13.5 points.

 

Trends

  • Favorites are 4-1 ATS past five Alamo Bowls
  • Texas 12-1 SU past 13 bowl games
  • UNDER is 6-2 past eight Oregon bowl games

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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