The Atlanta Falcons are rarely double-digit dogs, but when it has happened, they've responded, going 3-0 against the spread since 2007. They will get more than 10 points in their NFC championship rematch Monday night against the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park.
But check out the Niners run of profitability on the Monday Night Football odds menu, where they have covered eight in a row in the national TV spotlight.
Point spread: The 49ers opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 45. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 29.0-15.8 49ers
Why the Falcons can cover the spread
Atlanta is playing better after its disastrous start, winning two of its last three games. Just before beating Buffalo a few weeks ago, the Falcons gave the New Orleans Saints a very tough time, and their most recent defeat was a one-point affair at Lambeau Field in which they gave up a two-score lead.
Wide receiver Roddy White, hampered earlier this year by a hamstring injury, has caught 23 balls over his last three games, and tight end Tony Gonzalez has caught touchdowns in each of the last three games.
Why the 49ers can cover the spread
Quarterback Colin Kaepernick caught some flak earlier this year, but San Francisco, somewhat quietly, has won four games in a row, including a dominating victory over Tampa Bay on Sunday. On the season, the Niners only rank 27th in total offense, but they've also hit the 30-point mark seven times.
Defensively, San Francisco ranks third overall and sixth versus the run. The Niners fell behind the Falcons in last year's NFC Championship Game, 17-0, but they kept their cool and blanked Atlanta in the second half for a 28-24 victory.
It's hard to ignore an 8-0 ATS streak on Monday nights as well.
The computer is calling for a San Francisco victory and cover in a game that squeezes UNDER its total. The Niners have momentum with four straight wins, an indication that they're still going to fight a good fight in defense of their conference title.
But after winning on the East Coast on Sunday, coming home and trying to cover a big spread against an Atlanta team that's playing better ball lately might be asking too much. Take the points with the Falcons.
- Niners are 8-0 ATS in past eight Monday Nighters
- Falcons won two straight at San Francisco, but 2-8 ATS in past 10 visits
- UNDER is 5-1 in past six Niner home games
- Falcons winless on the road in 2013, but covered three straight as double-digit dogs since 2007