Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistDecember 18, 2013

NASHVILLE, TN - NOVEMBER 10:  Maurice Jones-Drew #32 of the Jacksonville Jaguars rushes against the Tennessee Titans at LP Field on November 10, 2013 in Nashville, Tennessee.  (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)
Frederick Breedon/Getty Images

The Tennessee Titans have lost five of six to the books when facing the Jacksonville Jaguars and are mired in a 3-13 spread skid in divisional contests like this one.

On the other hand, despite a 3-10 against-the-spread slide as a home pup, the Jags have won and covered three straight divisional games.

Point spread: Titans opened as 4-point favorites; the total was 44. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 19.6-9.7 Titans

Why the Titans can cover the spread

Though Tennessee lost at home to Arizona last week, it showed plenty of heart in negating a 17-point lead late in the fourth quarter. The Titans rallied to tie the game and force overtime. The setback was the third straight for the Titans and their eighth in 10 games.

A loss here runs them the risk of allowing Jacksonville to pull into a tie for second place in the AFC South. Tennessee is also out for revenge here as it lost the first meeting, 29-27, on Nov. 10.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Jacksonville has been playing with reckless abandon in the past month or so. The Jags' nothing-to-lose attitude has benefited them on the field, as they don't seem to put themselves in frustrating situations. Last week, they rallied to tie the Buffalo Bills in the fourth quarter, only to lose late, 27-20.

But given that they're familiar with the Titans and this is the home finale for the 2013 campaign, the Jaguars will be out to win their fourth in five games and extend their 5-1 ATS run against the Titans.

Smart Pick

This is a tough spot for the Titans, who are playing their fourth road game in five contests, having played in Oakland, Indianapolis and Denver before hosting the Cardinals last week. Tennessee is going to come in tired, and Jacksonville will be looking to take advantage with a physical approach.

Rather than play either bad team, risking the side, the UNDER might be the way to go with this game, as it has cashed in five of the last six times these two have met at Jacksonville.

Trends:

  • Titans are 1-5 ATS past six vs Jaguars
  • UNDER is 5-1 past six meetings at Jacksonville
  • Titans are 3-13 ATS past 16 divisional games
  • Jaguars won and covered three straight divisional games
  • Jaguars are 3-10 ATS past 13 games as home underdogs

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Sharkfollow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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